California Governor’s Race

                                   Posted 03/27/2026

It probably seems unthinkable to most people that a Republican could ever again step into the governorship of the state of California. However, the truth is that the office has been held by Republicans more often than one might think. Arnold Schwarzenegger (2003-2011), Pete Wilson (1991-1999), George Deukmejian (1983-1991), and Ronald Regan (1967-1975) were all Republicans. This means that Republicans held the office for 32 of the last 59 years. In fact, of the 40 California governors who have held the office since 1849, 21 were Republicans, 14 were Democrats, and 5 represented an independent party.

While history does record a number of Republican governors in California, Democrats have held the office since 2011. It is also true that California’s legislature has been dominated by the Democrat Party since 1996. Currently the California Senate consists of 30 Democrats and 10 Republicans while the Democrats have a 60-20 majority in the California House of Representatives. As a result, it may be observed that California politics and political policies have taken a substantial left turn over the last couple of decades.

In 2010, California adopted what has endearingly been labeled a jungle primary. In such a primary, voters cast votes for every candidate running for a political office. In other words, where the California governorship is concerned, every candidate from every political party is on the same primary ballot. When those ballots are counted the two candidates garnering the greatest number of votes move on to compete in the general election. It was believed at the time that this system would serve to bolster Democrat strength in the state going forward.

The coming 2026 election has seen an interesting development in California. The state’s primary will be held on June 2, 2026 and there are currently 10 gubernatorial candidates in the running. For the Democrat Party this is unfortunate since 8 of those candidates are running as Democrats. In the last few polls that have been taken in California, the 2 Republican candidates are making a strong showing while 8 Democrat candidates are splitting the Democrat votes. In fact, in the latest Berkley IGS poll taken between 3/9 and 3/15, the Republicans led all Democrat candidates. As reported by Real Clear Politics, the percentages for the top 8 candidates were as follows:

Hilton (R) Bianco (R) Swalwell (D) Porter (D) Steyer (D) Becerra (D) Villaraigosa (D) Mahan (D)

17 16 13 13 10 5 4 4

A California VOTER Index Survey conducted by EVARITUS RESEARCH over the period of March 12-17 showed similar results. As these numbers bear out, with so many Democrats in the race for governor, if no Democrats bow out of the primary, it would not be an impossible feat for the 2 Republican candidates to receive the highest number of votes in the coming primary. In that case, only Republican candidates would appear on the ballot for the general election in November resulting in a Republican California governor – the first since 2011.

How did Democrats in California, of all places, get themselves in such a bind? A major issue is the fact that the party failed to endorse a single candidate for governor at their recent state convention, leaving the door open to any and all who wished to step through. They evidently believed that one or two strong candidates would eventually emerge and the party would unite behind those leaders. However, that has not happened.

On March 3, 2026, Rusty Hicks, the California Democrat Party Chair, wrote an Open Letter to the Democrat Candidates for Governor, urging each one to consider seriously their viability in the race. The goal was to convince the candidates to put party first. The hope was that those polling too low to have any chance of winning might step aside and allow their supporters to choose a stronger candidate. So far that strategy has not worked.

Given the left-leaning nature of California voters, it is possible that a Democrat candidate could receive a large number of votes in the general election as a write-in candidate. However, that person’s odds of winning in the general election would be slim since it is likely that even write-in votes would be split among the numerous Democrat candidates.

It is probably a safe bet that, should a Democrat be among the top two vote-getters in the primary, the Democrat would win in the general election. After all, Californians generally vote heavily Democrat. Then again, it could be there is a good reason no Democrat candidate is currently able to close the deal. Perhaps the people of California have felt the weight of Democrat policies and are looking for a change. With the jungle primary just two months away, it will be interesting to see if the Republican candidates can, indeed, come out on top.

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                            U.S. Senate Races to Watch

                                    Posted 03/20/2026

Before delving too deeply, it should be noted that it is highly unlikely that Democrats will regain control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, and there are multiple reasons for this. You see, 35 Senate seats will be decided in November. Of those seats, 33 are reaching the end of their six-year terms while two constitute special elections. Also, of those 35 seats, 22 are currently held by Republicans while 13 are currently Democrat seats.

Some may quickly conclude that this makes the Republican majority in the Senate vulnerable, providing a prime opportunity for Democrats tosnatch the majority. However, of the 35 seats that will be decided in November, only ten seats are considered open possibilities for a shift from the incumbent party. The seats in question are Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. Of these 10 seats, 6 are currently held by Republicans and 4 by Democrats.

When the presidency is held by a political party, the vice-president becomes the president of the Senate. The vice-president does not vote on bills in the Senate except in the case of a tie vote at which time the vice-president casts the tie-breaking vote. Given this tie-breaking advantage, if the Senate has 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats, the party controlling the White House is considered the majority party. This means that, in order for Democrats to gain the majority in the Senate, they would need to hold 51 Senate seats. 

Democrats currently hold 45 Senate seats, and they have two Independent Senators who happen to caucus with and vote with Democrats, giving them a total of 47 seats. However, the Democrats have 4 seats that are questionable wins come November. That means approaching the November mid-terms, Democrats have 43 sure Senate seats. They will add to those 43 seats as they win some November races. However, since there are 10 Senate seats with questionable outcomes (6 Republican and 4 Democrat), the Democrats would need to win 8 out of 10 of those races to control the Senate. That is the unlikeliest of outcomes.

As things stand right now, it appears that Democrats have opportunities to make gains in places like Maine and North Carolina - seats currently held by Republicans. On the other hand, Republicans stand a reasonable chance of making gains in places like Georgia and Michigan. Consequently, for Democrats who believe they have a remote chance to control the Senate in 2027, it is not really feasible.  That is not a partisan comment; it is simply a logical conclusion based on the factors influencing the outcome. In fact, Republicans may stand a better chance of holding their current six-seat majority in the Senate than the Democrats have of taking the majority given the shifts in voter registration toward the Republican Party that have occurred in recent years.

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                               Other Election Matters

                                    Posted 03/20/2026

The House of Representatives is quite the story. With a plethora of congressmen and women exiting the House, and with such a razor-thin Republican majority, it is questionable whether they will be able to hold that majority. However, that does not mean it will be impossible. After all, at this point in time even the names of candidates in certain races are unknown and will remain that way until primaries are finished. Additionally, outcomes in the House of Representatives are far more susceptible to changing economic and social conditions in the 2 - 3 months prior to election day. Still, there will be a strong effort here at Constitution Matters to keep everyone informed about the status of close races as well as the general political landscape.

A critical factor that may well influence the outcome of the 2026 mid-terms in the House of Representatives is the war with Iran. Presidents who move the U.S. into war with other nations have not fared well over the last century. If there is a chink in the armor of a Republican majority in the House, it well could be U.S. involvement in Iran, particularly if the war lasts more than a very few weeks and/or America ends up sending troops into Iran to fight a ground war. If either of those happens, it will certainly open the door for the Democrats to win the majority in the House.

One thing Constitution Matters cannot account for is election shenanigans (voter fraud). While the mainstream narrative insists that fraudulent voting is not widespread, it is a serious issue (see the Constitution Commentary on this website titled "The 2020 Election...By the Numbers). Indeed, fraudulent voting has become a major factor in election outcomes - particularly at the county and municipal levels where as little as 100 fraudulent votes could wrongly place an individual in a political office. Hopefully this will be less of a factor in 2026.

Quite often headlines will appear stating boldly that Republicans are basically conceding the 2026 mid-terms in both the House and the Senate. It is important to understand that headlines and articles like these are not news articles...they are propaganda. Republicans, who go by a different rule book than Democrats, rarely employ these kinds of tactics. The fact is that no political forecaster (left-leaning or right-leaning) is currently predicting a Democrat majority in the Senate come November. The general consensus is that Republicans will hold the majority with either 51 or 52 seats once the dust clears. Constitution Matters will monitor the Senate races closely, but right now the expectation here is that Republicans will end up with between 51 and 53 Senate seats in November 2026.

What can you expect from Constitution Matters leading into the mid-terms? Here's an example. Currently, the Real Clear Politics average for pollsters weighing the generic congressional vote shows Democrats leading Republicans 47.8% to 43.1%, giving Democrats a 4.7% advantage. However, after eliminating polls of the general public (which lack substance) and weighing other polls based on historical accuracy as well as the character of the poll sample (likely voters or registered voters), Constitution Matters has the race slightly closer with Democrats holding an estimated 2.4% lead (Democrats 47.4% - Republicans 45.0%). Of course, it is important to keep in mind that with the election nine months away, these numbers are meaningless. Far too much can happen over the coming months that could impact the election. Still, here at Constitution Matters you can expect insights like this as the election draws near.

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