U.S. Senate Races to Watch - Posted 03/20/2026

Before delving too deeply, it should be noted that it is highly unlikely that Democrats will regain control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, and there are multiple reasons for this. You see, 35 Senate seats will be decided in November. Of those seats, 33 are reaching the end of their six-year terms while two constitute special elections. Also, of those 35 seats, 22 are currently held by Republicans while 13 are currently Democrat seats.

Some may quickly conclude that this makes the Republican majority in the Senate vulnerable, providing a prime opportunity for Democrats tosnatch the majority. However, of the 35 seats that will be decided in November, only ten seats are considered open possibilities for a shift from the incumbent party. The seats in question are Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. Of these 10 seats, 6 are currently held by Republicans and 4 by Democrats.

When the presidency is held by a political party, the vice-president becomes the president of the Senate. The vice-president does not vote on bills in the Senate except in the case of a tie vote at which time the vice-president casts the tie-breaking vote. Given this tie-breaking advantage, if the Senate has 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats, the party controlling the White House is considered the majority party. This means that, in order for Democrats to gain the majority in the Senate, they would need to hold 51 Senate seats. 

Democrats currently hold 45 Senate seats, and they have two Independent Senators who happen to caucus with and vote with Democrats, giving them a total of 47 seats. However, the Democrats have 4 seats that are questionable wins come November. That means approaching the November mid-terms, Democrats have 43 sure Senate seats. They will add to those 43 seats as they win some November races. However, since there are 10 Senate seats with questionable outcomes (6 Republican and 4 Democrat), the Democrats would need to win 8 out of 10 of those races to control the Senate. That is the unlikeliest of outcomes.

As things stand right now, it appears that Democrats have opportunities to make gains in places like Maine and North Carolina - seats currently held by Republicans. On the other hand, Republicans stand a reasonable chance of making gains in places like Georgia and Michigan. Consequently, for Democrats who believe they have a remote chance to control the Senate in 2027, it is not really feasible.  That is not a partisan comment; it is simply a logical conclusion based on the factors influencing the outcome. In fact, Republicans may stand a better chance of holding their current six-seat majority in the Senate than the Democrats have of taking the majority given the shifts in voter registration toward the Republican Party that have occurred in recent years.

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Other Election Matters - Posted 03/20/2026

The House of Representatives is another story. With a plethora of congressmen and women exiting the House, and with such a razor-thin Republican majority, it is questionable whether they will be able to hold that majority. However, that does not mean it will be impossible. After all, at this point in time even the names of candidates in certain races are unknown and will remain that way until primaries are finished. Additionally, outcomes in the House of Representatives are far more susceptible to changing economic and social conditions in the 2 - 3 months prior to election day. Still, there will be a strong effort here at Constitution Matters to keep everyone informed about the status of close races as well as the general political landscape.

A critical factor that may well influence the outcome of the 2026 mid-terms in the House of Representatives is the war with Iran. Presidents who move the U.S. into war with other nations have not fared well over the last century. If there is a chink in the armor of a Republican majority in the House, it well could be U.S. involvement in Iran, particularly if the war lasts more than a very few weeks and/or America ends up sending troops into Iran to fight a ground war. If either of those happens, it will certainly open the door for the Democrats to win the majority in the House.

One thing Constitution Matters cannot account for is election shenanigans (voter fraud). While the mainstream narrative insists that fraudulent voting is not widespread, it is a serious issue (see the Constitution Commentary on this website titled "The 2020 Election...By the Numbers). Indeed, fraudulent voting has become a major factor in election outcomes - particularly at the county and municipal levels where as little as 100 fraudulent votes could wrongly place an individual in a political office. Hopefully this will be less of a factor in 2026.

Quite often headlines will appear stating boldly that Republicans are basically conceding the 2026 mid-terms in both the House and the Senate. It is important to understand that headlines and articles like these are not news articles...they are propaganda. Republicans, who go by a different rule book than Democrats, rarely employ these kinds of tactics. The fact is that no political forecaster (left-leaning or right-leaning) is currently predicting a Democrat majority in the Senate come November. The general consensus is that Republicans will hold the majority with either 51 or 52 seats once the dust clears. Constitution Matters will monitor the Senate races closely, but right now the expectation here is that Republicans will end up with between 51 and 53 Senate seats in November 2026.

What can you expect from Constitution Matters leading into the mid-terms? Here's an example. Currently, the Real Clear Politics average for pollsters weighing the generic congressional vote shows Democrats leading Republicans 47.8% to 43.1%, giving Democrats a 4.7% advantage. However, after eliminating polls of the general public (which lack substance) and weighing other polls based on historical accuracy as well as the character of the poll sample (likely voters or registered voters), Constitution Matters has the race slightly closer with Democrats holding an estimated 2.4% lead (Democrats 47.4% - Republicans 45.0%). Of course, it is important to keep in mind that with the election nine months away, these numbers are meaningless. Far too much can happen over the coming months that could impact the election. Still, here at Constitution Matters you can expect insights like this as the election draws near.