Democrat

Peltola

Ossoff*

Turek

Jackson

El-Sayed

Flanagan

Pappas

Cooper

Brown

Talarico

Republican

Sullivan*

Collins

Hinson

Collins*

Rogers

Tafoya

Sununu

Whatley

Husted*

Paxton

Margin

R +1%

D +4%

R +5%

R +2%

R +3% (Flip)

D +2%

D +2%

D +4% (Flip)

R +2%

R +4%

State

Alaska (R)

Georgia (D)

Iowa (R)

Maine (R)

Michigan (D)

Minnesota (D)

New Hampshire (D)

North Carolina (R)

Ohio (R)

Texas (R)

The Iowa Senate Race - Turek v. Hinson

According to the RCP average, Josh Turek (Democrat) holds less than a 1-point lead over Ashley Hinson (Republican) in Iowa. However, that number includes a Marist poll of registered voters where Turek leads by 8 points. This poll must be omitted from any legitimate average for two reasons. First, it is a poll of registered voters rather than likely voters. Beginning October 1st, this site will consider only polls of likely voters. Second, even if polls of registered voters were included, the Marist poll is clearly an outlier, being more than 4 points outside the average of 3.1. No other poll comes close to an 8-point differential between the candidates. When the Marist poll is removed from consideration, the RCP average shows Turek and Hinson tied.

On this website, it is expected that Hinson will win this seat by between 4 and 6 points based on historical trends and numbers from some of the more reliable pollsters. Over the past few weeks, polls have begun to lean slightly in Hinson's favor and it is anticipated that, over the next couple of weeks. that this will be reflected in most, if not all likely voter polls.

The Ohio Senate Race - Brown v. Husted

According to the RCP average, Sherrod Brown (Democrat) holds a 3.1-point lead over Jon Brown (Republican) in Ohio. However, that number includes a Marist poll of registered voters where Brown leads by 8 points (sounds familiar). As with the Iowa race, this poll must be omitted from any legitimate average. When that poll is removed from consideration, the RCP average shows Brown with a lead of 2.5 points.

No other poll included in the RCP average shows Brown with a lead of more than 3 points. However, not all polls are created equal. Certain pollsters have a history of greater accuracy. When only those polls are included, Brown's lead in the RCP average is about 2 points. Add to this the fact that, in late September and early October, polls tend to overestimate Democrat numbers by an average of between 4 and 5 points, and it is safe to say that this race is tighter than the RCP average suggests.

There is one more factor to consider. Mail-in ballots have begun to arrive and the Democrat numbers, at least so far, are well below previous contests when Democrats lost in Ohio. Yet that may not be a fair measure at this point since only a small percentage of the anticipated mail-in ballots have been received. 

What does all of this mean? It means that the Senate race in Ohio is very close. However, it seems safe to say that, despite the polls, Husted has a slight advantage over Brown. The first advantage is the fact that Ohio has been trending further and further to the right over the past few election cycles. The second advantage is that Donald Trump won Ohio by double digits in 2024. It is very difficult to move a state electorate by that much in a two-year period. For that reason, here at Election Insights Husted is still favored to win this Senate seat by 2%.

The South Carolina Senate Race - Graham-Nordone v. Andrews

Few people have paid too much attention to the South Carolina Senate race this year. That is likely because, prior to Republican Lindsay Graham's death this past summer, the race was anything but close. As the incumbent, he was expected to easily win this seat by double digits. When he passed, his sister, Darline Graham-Nordone, stepped in to finish his term at Trump's request. She then decided to run for the next full term. Annie Andrews won the Democrat primary to challenge Graham-Nordone for this Senate seat.

South Carolina is primarily considered a Republican state and Graham-Nordone is favored in the polls, but the race is much tighter than it was for her brother. Still, she leads in the RCP average by 2.4 points. While this race is not included in the competitive races listed below, the polls suggest that it is closer than it should be. Nonetheless, Graham-Nordone is expected to win by somewhere around 6 or 7 points - perhaps more.

November Estimates

There is no change yet in the estimated number of Senate seats that each party is expected to win. Republicans should end up with a 53-47 Senate majority, which is the same majority held by Republicans in the current Senate. In the following chart, the asterisk next to an individual's name indicates the incumbent in the race, but several races listed here have open seats (no incumbent) due to retirement, primary loss, death, etc. Also, the D or R next to the state name indicates which party currently holds that seat.

This should not be considered an attempt to predict the exact outcome of the November elections, but should be seen as a depiction of the political landscape as a whole. In that vein, at this point in time the chart should be read with +/-1 senatorial seat in view for each political party. Given the following numbers, this means it is currently likely that Republicans will end up with 52 - 54 seats in the Senate while Democrats can expect to realize 46 - 48 seats. Additionally, margins should be considered as mere estimates with +/-1 point in view. For instance, in Georgia's race, Ossoff's leads of 4% suggests that he should win by between 3% and 5%. 

Election 2026 Insights: October 5, 2026

The U.S. Senate

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

53

47

Change

Election 2026 Insights: October 5, 2026

The U.S. House of Representatives

This past week was uneventful where races for the House of Representatives are concerned. Certain forecasters have, however, made dramatic changes in their estimates. For instance, one site went from estimating a Democrat majority of 220-215 last week to a new estimate of a Democrat majority of 227-208. That seems to be an awfully huge swing for such an uneventful week, particularly when the RCP average of polls has not really changed. 

The RCP average currently shows Democrats with a lead of 8.3 points - virtually unchanged from a week ago. What is interesting, however, is the make-up of the polls. For instance, three polls over the last two weeks reported absurdly high Democrat leads of 12 points (registered voters), 11 points (likely voters), and 15 points (likely voters). However, during the same time period, one of the most historically accurate pollsters - Harvard Harris - reported a Democrat lead of 2-points. Other pollsters have reported Democrat leads in the range of 5 to 8 points over the past couple of weeks.

Where does the race for the majority in the House of Representatives currently stand? At this point in time the Cook Political Report has estimated that Republicans have 205 seats that might be considered safe, or non-competitive while Democrats have 208 seats fitting that category. That leaves 22 seats that can be considered up for grabs, 17 of which are currently held by Republicans, giving Democrats considerable opportunities to flip seats. Of those 22 toss-ups, Republicans can reasonably expect to win 7 seats and Democrats can reasonably expect to win 9, leaving Republicans with 212 seats and Democrats with 217 seats.  This leaves 6 toss-up seats. Based on these numbers, Republicans would need to win all 6 of the toss-up seats to hold the majority in the House while Democrats need only win 1 of the toss-up seats to take the majority.

This is clearly a tight race for the House of Representatives. One wonders, then what factors will determine the outcome. This is where money usually comes into play. At the present time the Republican Party has substantially more money to spend on advertising than do Democrats, and it is money they intend to spend between now and the election. In truth, Republicans will dramatically outspend Democrats over the next four weeks. While money is not the only factor in elections, it tends to be critical where congressional races are concerned. Historically speaking, when it comes to the House of Representatives, the candidate who spends more money in his/her campaign wins 94% of the time.

While little occurred this week to impact the coming House elections, a couple of rather reputable forecasters have made considerable adjustments to their estimates, moving a number of seats toward of the Democrat Party. However, their adjustments seem to overstate the Democrat position. Consequently, the forecast for the House of Representatives here at Election Insights has been adjusted only slightly to account for that movement.

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

214-218

217-221

Democrat

Peltola

Ossoff*

Turek

Jackson

El-Sayed

Flanagan

Pappas

Cooper

Brown

Talarico

Republican

Sullivan*

Collins

Hinson

Collins*

Rogers

Tafoya

Sununu

Whatley

Husted*

Paxton

Margin

R +1%

D +4%

R +5%

R +2%

R +3% (Flip)

D +2%

D +2%

D +4% (Flip)

R +2%

R +4%

State

Alaska (R)

Georgia (D)

Iowa (R)

Maine (R)

Michigan (D)

Minnesota (D)

New Hampshire (D)

North Carolina (R)

Ohio (R)

Texas (R)

Who Will Control the Senate?

What will happen in the Senate this November is difficult to narrow down precisely, but forecasters are all over the place. Current projections range from a 51-49 Democrat majority to a 54-46 Republican majority, and the numbers change a couple of times each week depending on the political winds. However, the American political arena is not quite so unstable.

Here at Election Insights, the expectations for the Senate have not deviated in the last month. That is because this site does not rely strictly on fluctuating polls but considers many other factors including the political direction of the nation as a whole. Consequently, if you don't want your head to spin, stick with Election Insights for the next few weeks.

The Maine Senate Race - Jackson v. Collins

It's too early in the campaign season to assign too much significance to a couple of polls in a particular Senate race. Still, last time the Maine Senate race was discussed on this website (9/7/2026), the RCP average had Jackson leading Collins by 2.3 points. That lead has been cut by more than half over the last three weeks. According to the RCP average, Jackson now leads Collins by a mere 1 point. Additionally, three weeks ago Polymarket gave Jackson a 70% chance of winning. Those odds have now been reduced to 67%. The reason is that Collins has led in 2 of the last 3 polls reported to Real Clear Politics.

It is impossible to say whether these latest polls suggest a trend. That is a picture that will develop over the course of time, but polls on Senate races tend to be a bit sporadic. Hopefully there will be some significant polling available over the next week to help determine if these latest polls are indicative of a Collins surge or if this week is a blip on the screen in a race that favors the Democrat. However, the polls are not surprising as, here at Election Insights, Collins is expected to win.

The Michigan Senate Race - El-Sayed v. Rogers

Polling has been inconsistent in a number of Senate races, and that includes the Michigan race between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers. Polymarket currently gives El-Sayed a 74% chance of winning, which is surprising since the campaign has made critical missteps over recent weeks. Also, a Co/efficient poll - the latest poll submitted to RCP, shows a tied race. On the other hand, two other polls from this week show El-Sayed with significant leads of 7 points and 5 points. Even with these polls included, El-Sayed's RCP average lead is only 2.7%. When the 7-point lead in the Suffolk University poll is eliminated because of its outlier status, that lead drops to 2.25%.

This is a race where readers can anticipate tightening polls over the next couple of weeks, assuming polls are actually taken. It would not be surprising to see a race that is essentially tied in the ensuing polls. If, by the end of October, the polls have tightened to less than 1 point, that will not bode well for El-Sayed. In fact, it may well be that in the not-too-distant future, polls will be appearing showing Rogers with the lead. It is true that this is a seemingly risky prediction, but it is not unreasoned as the El-Sayed campaign continues making unforced errors and offering political positions that are not in line with the working-class voters of Michigan. This explains why the Detroit Free Press, hardly known as a bastion of conservatism and who endorsed Elissa Slotkin in 2024, has endorsed Rogers in this race. 

Many may recall that in the Democrat Michigan primary, El-Sayed led in the polls by almost double digits just prior to the vote. However, he won the primary by a mere 13,792 votes, or by less than 1%. Additionally, had Mallory McMorrow, the third Democrat candidate who received 4% of the vote, withdrawn from the race, it is reasonable to speculate that Kelly would have received considerably more of those votes than El-Sayed and Kelly may well have won the nomination. As with the primary polling, El-Sayed's support in Michigan is undoubtedly far weaker than current polling suggests. Add to this the fact that in the last two Senate races in Michigan (2020 and 2024), the Democrats barely squeaked out wins with far more mainstream candidates, and it is easy to see why El-Sayed may be in trouble. His polling numbers are likely overstated by between 4 and 7 points.

Texas Senate Race - Talarico v. Paxton

Here at Election Insights, Paxton is still considered the heavy favorite in this race. While Talarico leads in the RCP average by 2.9 points based on likely voter polls over the last 30 days, 3 of the last 5 likely voter polls - all completed in September - have him leading by only 1 point. That is a very scary position for an ultra-liberal candidate (Talarico) in an ultra-conservative state (Texas).

The Paxton campaign has only just begun to spend money on ads, and the campaign has more than $50 million to work with. Still, there are certain other factors to consider in this race. First, Senate races are tightening with Republican candidates gaining ground in most states. For instance, the Minnesota race has the Democrat Senate candidate leading the Republican Senate candidate by only 1.8% and the latest likely voter poll shows the candidates tied. That means the race in Minnesota, according to the RCP average, is closer than the Texas Senate race.

Poll aggregates and prediction sites work primarily with poll numbers and models. In doing so, they often fail to appreciate the logic that the greater electoral landscape demands, and the Minnesota/Texas paradigm is a perfect example of this. In the real world, were Minnesota to actually vote more conservatively than Texas in a Senate race, as these numbers suggest, it might be considered the equivalent of an apocalyptic sign.

Minnesota last elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate in 2002 and Texas has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988. It is likely, then, that either the Minnesota polls are understating the Democrat position or the Texas polls are understating the Republican position. The better bet is that Texas is the culprit.

Second, as has been stated prior on this site, Talarico's political views are not in line with the political views of the vast majority of Texans. It is said that he has, in the past, denigrated the Texas oil industry, which does not bode well for a senatorial candidate in Texas. Also, there appears to be primary hangover (bitter feelings) where Jasmine Crockett's supporters are concerned. It could well be that Talarico may find it difficult to get those particular Democrats to the voting booth.

Third, it is unlikely that a liberal candidate like James Talarico might win a Senate seat in 2026 in a state that Donald Trump won by nearly 14% two years earlier. That is unrealistic notwithstanding the polling average. It suggests that the polls are either being influenced by poll bias or the algorithms are simply flawed. Another possibility is that it is mostly liberal Democrats or DSA members who are responding, although polling models are supposed to account for that kind of discrepancy.

It could well be that the impact of the Republican mid-term convention is being reflected, at least to a degree, in recent polls that each show Paxton trailing by just 1%. In fact, the convention may be part of the explanation for polls tightening in Senate races around the country where Republicans have been trailing.

November Estimates

There is no change this week in the estimated margins or the number of Senate seats each party can be expected to win. Republicans should end up with a 53-47 Senate majority, which is the same majority held by Republicans in the current Senate. In the following chart, the asterisk next to an individual's name indicates the incumbent in the race, but several races listed here have open seats (no incumbent) due to retirement, primary loss, death, etc. Also, the D or R next to the state name indicates which party currently holds that seat.

This should not be considered an attempt to predict the exact outcome of the November elections, but should be seen as a depiction of the political landscape as a whole. In that vein, at this point in time the chart should be read with +/-1 senatorial seat in view for each political party. Given the following numbers, this means it is currently likely that Republicans will end up with 52 - 54 seats in the Senate while Democrats can expect to realize 46 - 48 seats. Additionally, margins should be considered as mere estimates with +/-1 point in view. For instance, in Georgia's race, Ossoff's leads of 4% suggests that he should win by between 3% and 5%. 

Election 2026 Insights: September 28, 2026

The U.S. Senate

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

53

47

Change

Election 2026 Insights: September 28, 2026

The U.S. House of Representatives

This past week was eventful. Perhaps one of the biggest occurrences was the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals overturning a Missouri Supreme Court decision concerning the coming election. The state court had decided to overturn a district map developed by Republicans in 2025. Of course, most people have become accustomed to state courts overturning Republican-drawn maps. What made this particular move distinct was the fact that the map had already been used in the August primary.

Making the situation invariably more complicated, the U.S. Supreme Court ended up overturning the decision by the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals. That means Missouri must use a 2022 map in November even though the 2025 map was used in the August primary. This seems to be a violation of the rule that courts must not make election changes within 90 days of an upcoming election. The Supreme Court offered no explanation for the decision.

Where does the race for the majority in the House of Representatives currently stand? At this point in time the Cook Political Report has estimated that Republicans have 207 seats that might be considered safe, or non-competitive while Democrats have 206 seats fitting that category. That leaves 21 seats that can be considered up for grabs, 16 of which are currently held by Republicans, giving Democrats considerable opportunities to flip seats. Of those 21 toss-ups, Republicans can reasonably expect to win 7 seats and Democrats can reasonably expect to win 9, leaving Republicans with 214 and Democrats with 215 seats in the House of Representatives.  This leaves 6 toss-up seats. The party that wins 218 seats will control the majority in the House of Representatives.

This is clearly a tight race for the House of Representatives. One wonders, then, what factors will determine the outcome. This is where money usually comes into play. At the present time the Republican Party has substantially more money to spend on advertising than do Democrats, and it is money they intend to spend between now and the election. In truth, Republicans will dramatically outspend Democrats over the next six weeks. While money is not the only factor in elections, it tends to be critical where congressional races are concerned. Historically speaking, when it comes to the House of Representatives, the candidate who spends more money in his/her campaign wins 94% of the time.

It is a fact that Republicans will be outspending Democrats on advertising in the next few weeks leading up to November 3rd. Given historical trends, this fact suggests that Republicans may have a slight advantage when it comes to the 6 toss-up seats mentioned above. Still, the House estimates moved toward the Democrats last week and, despite this week's drama, nothing has happened to reverse that move.

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

215-219

216-220

Democrat

Peltola

Ossoff*

Turek

Jackson

El-Sayed

Flanagan

Pappas

Cooper

Brown

Talarico

Republican

Sullivan*

Collins

Hinson

Collins*

Rogers

Tafoya

Sununu

Whatley

Husted*

Paxton

Margin

R +1%

D +4%

R +5%

R +2%

R +3% (Flip)

D +2%

D +2%

D +4% (Flip)

R +2%

R +4%

State

Alaska (R)

Georgia (D)

Iowa (R)

Maine (R)

Michigan (D)

Minnesota (D)

New Hampshire (D)

North Carolina (R)

Ohio (R)

Texas (R)

The Georgia Senate Race - Collins v. Ossoff

The Georgia U.S. Senate race pits Mike Collins, a Republican, against Jon Ossoff, the Democrat. In this case, Ossoff has the advantage of incumbency and it looks like that advantage may pay off. Currently, the RCP average shows Ossoff leading by 7.8% and Polymarket gives Ossoff a 94% chance of winning in November. Given the lack of recent polling, no 30-day insights are available.

Certain Republicans have voiced optimism, suggesting that Collins has a chance to win this seat. That optimism is based partly on the expectation that the Republican Party could spend significantly more money on this race than the Democrat Party. Still, polling has been consistent in Ossoff's favor over the past several months, so Collins would need to dig out of a very deep hole to have any chance of winning. 

The New Hampshire Senate Race - Pappas v. Sununu

The retirement of current New Hampshire Senator Jeanne Shaheen has resulted in a race for this New Hampshire Senate seat without an incumbent. Hence, there is no incumbency advantage.  The New Hampshire primary resulted in the Republican candidate, John Sununu facing off against Democrat Chris Pappas.

Most see New Hampshire as a Democrat-leaning state. While the state has been known to elect Republicans, particularly to the governor's office. Over the course of time, New Hampshire has had far more Republican governors than Democrat. The last time the state elected a Democrat governor was 2012 when Maggie Hassan served for four years.

One thing John Sununu has going for him is name recognition. His father, John H. Sununu, was governor of New Hampshire (1983-1989) during the Reagan administration and his brother, Chris, served as governor of the state for two terms (2017-2025). Consequently, his name may provide him with a slight advantage and, again, the state has delivered many Republican Senators to Washington.

Pappas had edged Sununu slightly in the polls as of early September, but the polls have tightened dramatically of late so the race could go either way. Polymarket currently gives Pappas an 86% chance of winning. If current trends continue and polls tighten even more, that number may drop over the next month. Still, Pappas appears to be in the stronger position at the moment.

The North Carolina Senate Race - Cooper v. Whatley

Roy Cooper served as governor of North Carolina until he was term-limited. Having held the office for eight years, he left the governorship in January 2025 and decided to run for Senator from that state. He currently leads in the polls by a hefty margin and Polymarket shows a 92% chance that Cooper will flip that Senate seat from Republican to Democrat. The seat is currently held by Republican Tom Tillis who, in June 2026, decided to withdraw from the race.

Michael Whatley, former North Carolina Republican Chairman (2019-2024) who also served briefly as chair of the Republican National Committee (2024-2025), has stepped into the race representing the Republican Party. While he has worked behind the scenes in the Republican Party and gotten many candidates elected to office, this is Whatley's first attempt seeking public office. He is certainly at a disadvantage in North Carolina as Cooper has the name recognition, having served as governor for two terms.

One would think that Cooper would easily win the Senate seat in North Carolina, and that may well happen. His one issue is that many North Carolinians were extremely disappointed with his handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Helene in 2024. Many believe his response was both slow and weak. While he leads by roughly 8 points in the RCP average, without Helene, he may easily be up by double digits. Still, it appears Helene may not be enough of an issue to cost him the North Carolina Senate seat.

Notable Change

Amazingly, the Senate race in the state of Minnesota has been added to the list of competitive races this week. The race has been tighter than expected for a heavily Democrat state. However, Democrat Tina Smith's decision to step down leaves the state with an empty seat with no incumbent. Peggy Flanagan, the Democrat candidate, has been leading by a slim margin and it has been assumed that Democrats would hold this seat. However, given the two most recent polls, one by Co/efficient showing Flanagan with a 1-point lead, and a second poll by KSTP/SurveyUSA reporting a tie, it seems Michele Tafoya, the Republican, is in the running. Perhaps the abundant fraud discovered in that state where Democrats have been in charge has begun to take its toll on the Democrat Party. Consequently, Minnesota is now included in our list of competitive races. Still, Polymarket gives Flanagan a 90% chance of winning.

November Estimates

The ten Senate races listed below are still considered competitive. There have been two changes from the previous week's estimates. Minnesota has been added and Hinson in Iowa has begun to solidify her lead. Assuming the following outcomes are realized, Republicans would end up with a 53-47 Senate majority, which is the same majority held by Republicans in the current Senate. In the following chart, the asterisk next to an individual's name indicates the incumbent in the race, but several races listed here have open seats (no incumbent) due to retirement, primary loss, death, etc. Also, the D or R next to the state name indicates which party currently holds that seat.

This should not be considered an attempt to predict the exact outcome of the November elections, but should be seen as a depiction of the political landscape as a whole. In that vein, at this point in time the chart should be read with +/-1 senatorial seat in view for each political party. Given the following numbers, this means it is currently likely that Republicans will end up with 52 - 54 seats in the Senate while Democrats can expect to realize 46 - 48 seats. Additionally, margins should be considered as mere estimates with +/-1 point in view. For instance, in Georgia's race, Ossoff's leads of 4% suggests that he should win by between 3% and 5%. 

Election 2026 Insights: September 21, 2026

The U.S. Senate

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

53

47

Change

R +1

Election 2026 Insights: September 21, 2026

The U.S. House of Representatives

There has been some leftward movement in the Generic Congressional Ballot polls this week. For instance, the RCP average for the generic congressional ballot jumped from a Democrat lead of 6.6 points last week to a Democrat advantage of 8.1 this week. That having been said, a couple of polls need to be omitted based on margin of error and historical trends.

A Marquette poll falls outside the 4-point margin of error and, as such will be omitted. However, the RCP average also includes a poll from Economist/YouGov that shows a 12-point lead for Democrats, which will also be omitted. Why should this poll be omitted? It is because Economist/YouGov has shown an historical tendency to heavily overstate the Democrat position at this point in the race. In mid-September 2024, Economist/YouGov polled a 4-point lead for Democrats while the final actual number was Republicans by 2.7 points.  In 2022 it was a similar story with Economist/YouGov showing Democrats with a 5-point lead in mid-September while the actual final number was Republicans by 2.8 points. 

On each of these occasions, the numbers for Economist/YouGov were considerably off compared to other pollsters. The same is true this year, making their current numbers dubious. Consequently, while the number is not technically outside the margin of error, their inconsistency makes the poll suspect. A poll from Big Data is also on the edge of the margin but will be included based of historical accuracy. Consequently, the RCP average is adjusted to a Democrat lead of 7.1%, which is still substantial.

It is a bit early to try to gain any insight into how the Republican Convention might impact congressional races. With the Iran conflict still in full swing and gas prices climbing to recent highs, the convention may have little or no influence on the outcome of the election. Polls that are included reflect solid directional movement and impact the current outlook where November 3rd is concerned. While it is still impossible to predict which party will control the House of Representative in 2027, Democrats will be encouraged by the slight shift in the estimate given below. Last week showed Republicans with a possible range of 216-220 seats and Democrats with a potential of 215-219 congressional seats, suggesting that Republicans enjoyed a slight edge. This week those numbers are reversed.

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

215-219

216-220

Democrat

Peltola

Ossoff*

Turek

Jackson

El-Sayed

Pappas

Cooper

Brown

Talarico

Republican

Sullivan*

Collins

Hinson

Collins*

Rogers

Sununu

Whatley

Husted*

Paxton

Margin

R +1%

D +4%

R +4%

R +2%

R +3% (Flip)

D +2%

D +4% (Flip)

R +2%

R +4%

State

Alaska (R)

Georgia (D)

Iowa (R)

Maine (R)

Michigan (D)

New Hampshire (D)

North Carolina (R)

Ohio (R)

Texas (R)

Florida Senate Race - Nixon v. Moody

Here is a brief word on the Florida Senate race where Angela Nixon, a Democratic Socialist, is running against Ashley Moody, a Republican. It could be argued that Nixon only won the Democrat primary because she was running against the far less popular Alex Vindman. However, it is safe to say that Nixon has some issues of her own. Her political views are not only contra-Floridian, but her abrasive political techniques, including shouting angrily through a megaphone on the floor of the Florida legislature, ended this race before it began.

Over the course of the last 15 years, Florida has taken on a very conservative/Republican persona. This, coupled with the conservative political views of Moody measured against Nixon's socialist political positions, explains why Moody leads in the RCP average by 8.7 points. In fact, Polymarket shows that Ashley Moody has a 93% chance of winning the Florida Senate seat

Iowa Senate Race - Turek v. Hinson

Iowa is, for all practical purposes, a Republican state. It is not surprising, then, that Ashley Hinson, the Republican, leads Josh Turek, the Democrat, in the RCP average for Iowa's U.S. Senate seat. What is surprising is that she holds only a 0.5% lead. That lead had been 1.8%, but a couple of September polls showing Turek with the lead changed the picture slightly. In fact, one of the polls showing a Turek lead is considered a relatively reliable pollster. However, there is something you, the reader, should understand about RCP poll averages. Real Clear Politics does not distinguish between polls of the general population, registered voters, and likely voters. RCP also includes polls that are clearly outliers. These factors tend to dilute the values of those polls.

Here at Election Insights, while we still consider the polls of registered voters, outliers are a different story. Most polls have a margin of error of 3 to 4 points. Consequently, when a poll falls outside that range of 4 points from the RCP average, either high or low, that poll is generally excluded. In the case of the Iowa Senate race, there are two polls - one showing Turek with a lead of 5 points and the other giving Hinson a 5-point lead. These two polls fall outside that margin from the RCP average. When those polls are removed from the calculation, Hinson ends up with a lead of 1 point, which is still very close. Polymarket currently gives Hinson a 61% chance of winning the Iowa race.

The Ohio Senate Race - Brown v. Husted

The Ohio Senate race is difficult to read since reliable polling is not available. While Sherrod Brown, the Democrat, leads Jon Husted, the Republican, in the RCP average by 3.3 points, that lead is difficult to take seriously and the reasons are two-fold. First, four polls are included in the average, but only one poll is available from the last 30 days. Second, two of those polls qualify as outliers. A Fabrizio/Anzalone poll from mid-June has Brown leading by 3%. However, a NYTimes/Siena poll from the same time period shows Husted leading by 3%. Interestingly, a Fox News poll from early August had Brown leading by 8%. Unfortunately, with Brown leading in the RCP average by 3.3%, the NYTimes poll and the Fox News polls end up being outliers. Consequently, the polling is unreliable.

While the polling offers little insight, it can be said that Husted has some distinct advantages in this race. For one thing, Husted is the incumbent, and incumbency generally plays well, particularly in the Senate. It is true that this incumbency came about as Husted was appointed Senator when his predecessor, J.D. Vance, stepped into the office of vice president, but incumbency still matters.

Additionally, like Florida, the state of Ohio has been trending heavily Republican over the past few election cycles. Donald Trump won the presidential vote three times, increasing his percentage with each election. In 2016 he won with 51% of the vote, in 2020 Trump won Ohio with 53% of the vote, and in 2024 he won nearly 55% of the vote in Ohio. Similarly, J.D. Vance won his Senate seat in 2022 with 53% of the vote. Meanwhile, Polymarket previously gave Brown a 52% chance of winning, but now gives Husted a 50% chance. Ohio's recent trend toward Republicans continues to give Husted the advantage.

November Estimates

The nine Senate races listed below are considered by most to be competitive. There have been no changes from the previous week's estimates. Assuming the following outcomes are realized, Republicans would end up with a 53-47 Senate majority, which is the same majority held by Republicans in the current Senate. In the following chart, the asterisk next to an individual's name indicates the incumbent in the race, but several races listed here have open seats (no incumbent) due to retirement, primary loss, death, etc. Also, the D or R next to the state name indicates which party currently holds that seat.

This should not be considered an attempt to predict the exact outcome of the November elections, but should be seen as a depiction of the political landscape as a whole. In that vein, at this point in time the chart should be read with +/-1 senatorial seat in view for each political party. Given the following numbers, this means it is currently likely that Republicans will end up with 52 - 54 seats in the Senate while Democrats can expect to realize 46 - 48 seats.

Election 2026 Insights: September 14, 2026

The U.S. Senate

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

53

47

Election 2026 Insights: September 14, 2026

The U.S. House of Representatives

There has been some movement in the Generic Congressional Ballot polls this week that deserves review. Last week Democrats appeared to lose ground on the generic ballot, dropping from a lead of 6.7 to 5.8 points. Interestingly, a couple polls favoring Democrats raised that lead to 6.6 points this week. However, that number must be revised. As mentioned above, sometimes polls must be considered outliers. As a general rule here at Election Insights, any poll that is more than 4 points higher or lower than the average, placing it outside a normal margin of error, must be considered an outlier and, consequently, excluded from the average. 

In that 6.6-point lead for Democrats are three polls that must be considered outliers. The first is a Harvard-Harris poll that reports a Republican lead of 2 points, which is 8.6 points different from the average. There are also two polls - Quinnipiac and Economist/YouGov - each showing Democrats with an 11-point lead, which is 4.4 points higher than the average. While Harvard-Harris has an incredible reputation for accuracy, in fairness to systemic polling aggregation, that number must be excluded. Consequently, removing those polls from the calculation, the Democrat lead is 6.625 points compared to last week's 5.8 points. Since all included polls are less than 30 days old, the Democrat 30-day lead jumps from last week's 5.8 points to 6.625 points.

The numbers have not moved dramatically over the last two weeks - at least, the numbers that matter. Of course, small movement in the polling numbers in early September means nothing. Consequently, November estimates have not moved and at this point, it is simply impossible to determine which party may carry the House majority in November. Still, given the Republican advantage from redistricting coupled with the divisions in the Democrat Party, it stands to reason that Republicans have a slight edge, and we have yet to see how last week's Republican convention in Dallas may impact the numbers. Consequently, the following outlook is unchanged from last week.

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

216-220

215-219

Democrat

Peltola

Ossoff*

Turek

Jackson

El-Sayed

Pappas

Cooper

Brown

Talarico

Republican

Sullivan*

Collins

Hinson

Collins*

Rogers

Sununu

Whatley

Husted*

Paxton

Margin

R +1%

D +4%

R +4%

R +2%

R +3% (Flip)

D +2%

D +4% (Flip)

R +2%

R +4%

State

Alaska (R)

Georgia (D)

Iowa (R)

Maine (R)

Michigan (D)

New Hampshire (D)

North Carolina (R)

Ohio (R)

Texas (R)

Michigan Senate Race - El-Sayed v. Rogers

Over the last week, not much has occurred to impact the outlook in the Senate for the upcoming election. It could be said that Mike Rogers in Michigan has gained some strength only because Abdul El-Sayed's campaign has hit some serious snags. This especially includes Black and Jewish voters who have taken issue with some of El-Sayed's comments along with certain positions he has taken and questionable relationships he has developed. He has purportedly apologized for his seemingly offensive remarks. Whether that apology moves the needle at all remains to be seen. Still, the race remains tight with Rogers arguably holding a slight edge.

Texas Senate Race - Talarico v. Paxton

Talarico's Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling lead in Texas has increased slightly from 1.9% to 2.4% bolstered by a single poll that appears to be an outlier and, as a result, Polymarket shows his odds of winning that Senate seat at 51%. Other recent polls show either a tie or Paxton with a 1 point advantage. However, the Paxton campaign has only just begun to spend money on ads and there are certain factors to consider in this race. 1) The polls are undoubtedly overstating Talarico's standing in the race - probably by at least 3-4 points, 2) Talarico's political views do not align with most Texans, and 3) Paxton has already won multiple statewide elections in Texas. While Talarico has raised considerable dollars, Paxton got a very late start in fundraising due to a challenging primary, including a runoff election. Over the next couple of weeks money from various sources will be pouring into the campaign and Paxton has an ad message that will resonate with voters because his positions align with Texas voters.

It remains highly unlikely that Talarico, whose political positions stand in stark contrast with the political views of the vast majority of Texans, will win a statewide election there. This is a man who, in 2020, targeted white supremacy and the Texas oil industry, linking both to climate change, and with a vision of ending both. In addition, it has been suggested, and for good reasons, that Talarico may have some difficulty getting Jasmine Crockett supporters to actually show up and vote this election cycle as there appears to be a bitter after-taste with Crockett's supporters left over from the primary. Paxton may have some issues of his own but, in a place like Texas, they pale in comparison.

There are a couple other factors to consider in the Texas Senate race. First, the upcoming Republican mid-term convention, which will be held in Dallas, will bring attention to the race and undoubtedly give Paxton a boost in the polls, more accurately reflecting the mood of the Texas electorate. Second, while Democrats hold a 6.4% edge nationally on the Generic Congressional Ballot, in the state of Texas, Republicans have a 2.8% edge on that ballot. That's a difference of 9.2% in favor of Republicans. Consequently, while Talarico currently leads in the RCP average, it seems reasonable to believe that the race is Paxton's to lose.

The Alaska Senate Race - Peltola v. Sullivan v. Sullivan v. Heikes

One race that involves some unusual twists is the Alaska Senate Race. The Republican Party actually has three candidates on the November ballot with two of those candidates sharing the same name. One is the incumbent Dan S. Sullivan while the other is a late-entry candidate by the name of Dan J. Sullivan. Carol Beecher, the Alaska Division of Elections Director, sought to remove the second Dan Sullivan based on a "preponderance of evidence" that he was part of a Democrat plot to confuse voters and boost Peltola, a Democrat, into the Senate seat. However, the Alaska Supreme Court overruled Beecher, leaving two Dan Sullivans on the Republican side of the November ballot.

Making things worse for the Republicans, the fourth-place finisher in the primary was a Democrat by the name of David Leslie. After the primary, Leslie dropped out of the race moving the fifth-place finisher, a Republican by the name of Gerald Heikes, onto the November ballot in his place. Consequently, rather than two Democrats and two Republicans appearing on the ballot, there will be one Democrat and three Republicans, two of whom share the same name.

There seems little doubt that the late entry of a second Dan Sullivan involves some political chicanery, but there is nothing that can be done about that at this point. However, this ballot maneuvering, coupled with Alaska's system of ranked-choice voting, serves up a real challenge for the incumbent Dan S. Sullivan. It is a challenge that may be difficult for him to overcome. For now, the race remains tight with the incumbent having the slightest advantage. Mary Peltola, the sole Democrat on the ballot, currently holds a 2-point edge in the RCP average and Polymarket gives her a 64% chance of winning. We'll need to keep an eye on this one over the coming weeks as it has a chance to be a flip for the Democrat Party.

The Maine Senate Race - Jackson v. Collins

If nothing else, the storyline surrounding the 2026 Senate race in Maine has been colorful. Not surprisingly, Susan Collins, the Republican incumbent, is the Republican candidate. She was unopposed on the Republican ticket, so the fact that she is the candidate is no surprise. However, it is the Democrat side of the aisle that has provided entertainment for political junkies.

Four Democrats participated in the primary seeking to challenge Susan Collins for her Senate seat. Of those candidates, Graham Platner won the day with 72.1% of the votes. What made this interesting was that Platner actually wore a tattoo of a Nazi symbol on his chest. One would think that, having venomously accused Republicans of being Nazis/Fascists for the last 65 years, Democrats would have balked at allowing someone like Platner to run for Senate on a Democrat ticket, but they did not. Evidently, being a Democrat Nazi is acceptable. While Platner denied supporting fascism, the tattoo did not serve him well.

While the Democrats were willing to overlook the tattoo, things went awry for Platner when certain Democrat women began to accuse him of inappropriate sexual behavior - including rape. At that point, Platner began to feel the political pressure and chose to unwind his candidacy. Of course, this left the Democrats with no candidate to face Susan Collins in November, leaving Republicans with an automatic win.

When Platner bowed out of the race, the Democrat Party held a mini convention to select his replacement. The race was between Saundra Pelletier, CEO of Evofem Biosciences, Inc., and Troy Jackson, a former logger who was part of the Maine legislature as a Representative and a Senator beginning in 2000. Democrats met in Bangor on July 25th to choose their candidate. Out of nearly 600 delegates, Jackson received 566 votes and became Platner's replacement in the Maine Senate race.

Amazingly, Jackson instantly skyrocketed to the forefront in polls. The RCP average shows Jackson leading Susan Collins by 2.3 points and Polymarket currently gives him a 70% chance of winning the race. The number is likely inflated simply because he is the new kid on the block. However, like pretty much all politicians, Troy Jackson evidently has some skeletons in the closet, and Susan Collins is beginning to run ads concerning Jackson's fathering of children with his second cousin. 

Jackson apparently also has a slight temper. In 2021, as President of the Maine Senate, Jackson became overly frustrated during a discussion with his Democrat colleagues. In his anger, Jackson threw a water bottle. He insists that the bottle was not aimed as anyone in particular. However, a female Democrat believed it was aimed at her and was evidently so frightened by the incident that she chose not to run for office in the next election. We can only guess how these issues might impact this year's election.

On the other side of the coin, Susan Collins has been a Senator in Maine since 1997, and she pretty much always outperforms the polls. In 2020 she ended up winning the race, beating her poll numbers by nearly 9 points, and in 2026 she is currently outperforming her 2020 polls. While some insist that Susan Collins is in trouble with Maine voters in response to her support of Bret Kavanaugh for Supreme Court Justice, that dissatisfaction is not showing in the polls and she won the seat in 2020, two years after the Kavanaugh vote.

These things having been said, it is far more likely that Collins, rather than Jackson, will win the Maine Senate seat. She is a known commodity in Maine politics and, while Jacskon served in the Maine legislature for several years, Collins' incumbency offers a powerful advantage come November when she will likely outperform the polls by a half dozen points or more.

November Estimates

In this week's chart, there have been no changes from the previous week's estimates. Assuming the following outcomes are realized, Republicans would end up with a 53-47 Senate majority, which is the same majority held by Republicans in the current Senate. In the following chart, the asterisk next to an individual's name indicates the incumbent in the race, but several races listed here have open seats (no incumbent) due to retirement, primary loss, death, etc. Also, the D or R next to the state name indicates which party currently holds that seat.

This should not be considered an attempt to predict the exact outcome of the November elections, but should be seen as a depiction of the political landscape as a whole. In that vein, at this point in time the chart should be read with +/-1 senatorial seat in view for each political party. Given the following numbers, this means it is currently likely that Republicans will end up with 52 - 54 seats in the Senate while Democrats can expect to realize 46 - 48 seats.

Election 2026 Insights: September 7, 2026

The U.S. Senate

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

53

47

Election 2026 Insights: September 7, 2026

The U.S. House of Representatives

This has been a fascinating week in the race for the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Some curious events occurred this week that may well impact Democrat hopes/chances of winning that majority in November. Some were self-inflicted wounds within the party while others came from outside sources. It will be interesting to watch the Democrat Party over the next month as we track how some of these things play out.

On Tuesday, September 1, 2026, the headline "Two House Democrats Vote to Salvage GOP Agenda" appeared on politico.com. In a vote on House rules, which impacts what bills get debated on the House floor, Democrat Representatives Jared Golden of Maine and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington broke with the rest of the House Democrats by voting with Republicans. The pair evidently made their decisions believing a favorable vote was the best way they could represent their constituents. Specifically, Golden wanted a bill he introduced concerning the Lobster industry to be open to debate on the House floor and Gluesenkamp Perez was simply supporting Golden's efforts.

One would think, in a normal world, that these two Democrats would be respected for their decision to step up and put constituents before party politics, but the world inside the U.S. legislature is far from normal. The Democrat leadership in the chamber viewed their actions as unacceptable. In fact, it appears that these two representatives may well face disciplinary action for what is seen as a betrayal of their party. Minority leader Hakeen Jefferies commented concerning the crossover vote, "It is an action that necessitates a serious response." It is difficult to say how something like this might impact the mid-terms, but it is fair to say that it is not a good look just prior to an election for two politicians to be scolded and/or disciplined by their leadership for putting their constituents' interests ahead of party loyalty.

Another interesting element of this situation is that the above resolution on which Golden and Gluesenkamp Perez voted with Republicans also included a statement condemning socialism. This means that these two Democrat members of the House voted in favor of condemning socialism while the rest of the Democrat Party refused to support that statement.

As if two Democrats breaking with the party is not bad enough, what if 33 Democrats went rogue? Well, that is exactly what happened. Hakeem Jeffries could not rein in Democrats last week on a bill that sought to counter antisemitism on college campuses by blocking federal funding for schools seeking to boycott Israel. While passage of the bill may seem like a no-brainer for most Americans, the steady rise of antisemitism among those on the far left is an issue and this public display of division within the ranks is a problem Jefferies was hoping to avoid.

These legislative incidents reveal some real fractures in the Democrat Party and, if the Democrats plan to take a majority in the House of Representatives, they must be able to put on a united front. However, especially given the schism between the left and what might be considered the far-left Democratic Socialists, coming together could be difficult.

While the above incidents are clearly self-inflicted wounds within the Democrat Party, something else occurred this week that is eye-opening. Last week on this page it was suggested that the Democrat advantage in the Generic Congressional Ballot would likely begin to dissipate and, as was noted at the time, polls from the last 30 days supported that hypothesis. That was an interesting point, but it was still not indicative of a dramatic shift in the numbers.

This week Harvard-Harris, one of the most accurate pollsters in recent elections, submitted their latest numbers on the Generic Congressional Ballot, and the results were astounding. Harvard-Harris showed Republicans leading by 2 points in that poll. A couple polls came in afterward showing Democrats with the lead. Following the numbers, one week ago the RCP average for the Generic Congressional Ballot gave Democrats a lead of 6.7 points. However, when considering only polls from the last 30 days, the Democrat lead dropped to 5.67 points. Now that overall Democrat lead has fallen from 6.7 to 5.8 points while the 30-day lead has risen from 5.67 to 5.8 points.

Of course, this is a very narrow window, and it would be a fool's errand to draw big-picture conclusions in early September. We could see polls over the next week that reverse the current trend to some degree. In fact, that seems likely to happen. Still, the numbers are not irrelevant and will be well worth watching as we close in on November 3rd.

Despite the above-mentioned Democrat challenges, it is still too early to make any serious determination as to which party might take the majority in the House, and it may be a few weeks before that picture begins to unfold. Consequently, the following numbers are unchanged from last week.

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

216-220

215-219

As it stands at the beginning of September 2026, we start with a picture of the U.S. Senate where the Democrats, it is generally accepted, have 44 non-competitive seats while Republicans have 47 non-competitive seats going into November. Some will say the number of safe seats starts at 47-47, but that, as suggested above, is political hype. On this site we will be following the 9 semi-competitive races listed below whose outcomes will determine which party will land a majority in the Senate in the 2026 mid-term election.

Here we will reveal November expectations including an estimate of the spread (rounded to the nearest full percentage point) by which the winner in each race should carry the day. Numbers are based on polls from some rather reliable pollsters but are adjusted for a number of factors including a candidate’s monetary resources, the character/policies of individual candidates, and historical election results and trends in each given state.

Political polls can be peculiar. For instance, the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average for the Michigan Senate race between Abdul El Sayed, a Democrat with socialist leanings, and Republican Mike Rogers shows El Sayed with a 1.8% advantage and Polymarket, the oddsmaker, currently gives El Sayed a 65% chance of winning that seat based on those polls. However, the numbers are heavily skewed in favor of El Sayed by Democrat pollsters. From a common-sense perspective as well as some reliable polling, El Sayed has very little chance, if any, of winning in Michigan. Even a number of influential Democrats have refused to endorse him and a relatively aggressive "Democrats for Rogers" movement has begun to take shape. Over the next couple of months El Sayed's advantage in the polls will undoubtedly dissipate as reality influences the numbers.

The same may be said of the race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton in Texas where the RCP average shows Talarico with a 1.9% advantage. Polymarket has been bouncing around, but currently gives Talarico a 50% chance of winning. Again, common sense suggests that it would be much better to be a Texas Attorney General who has consistently won statewide office than a socialist-style candidate with views that conflict dramatically with the vast majority of Texans. In both cases, polls are included in the tally whose results generally lean heavily in favor of the Democrat Party. These factors are taken into consideration here at constitutionmatters.net.

The Alaska Senate race is a particularly difficult call given their method of ranked choice voting. Constitutionally speaking, this method seems questionable at best and adds a measure of unpredictability since there seems to be a great deal of inconsistency when it comes to a person's selection of second and third choice candidates. This year's ballot includes multiple Republicans who share the name "Dan Sullivan." It was suspected that this involved political shenanigans intended to confuse the voters. However, it is a basic principle that ballots must lack ambiguity and having two Dan Sullivans on the Republican side of the ballot could only distort voters' choices. Alaska Division of Elections Director Carol Beecher saw through the chicanery and, citing "the preponderance of evidence" that the second Dan Sullivan's intent was to confound voters, unsuccessfully sought to remove the late-entry candidate from the ballot.

Despite loud voices of hope and speculation, Democrats have little, and perhaps no chance of securing a majority in the Senate in 2026. The senatorial map leans solidly in favor of Republicans. Democrats appear to be in a position to flip the Republican-held seat in North Carolina. However, in order to take a majority in the Senate, Democrats would need to flip 4 of 5 seats in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, or win 3 of those 5 seats while retaining the Democrat-held Michigan seat. The odds are highly against that outcome. Still, it is understandable that Democrats would cheer on their candidates and seek to gin up support among their constituents in hopes of adding perhaps a single Senate seat to the Democrat side of the aisle. That's politics. Of course, political outcomes always rest on who actually turns out to vote. However, even with an average mid-term Republican turnout, the odds are stacked against Senate Democrats taking control.

Assuming the following outcomes are realized, Republicans would end up with a 53-47 Senate majority, which is the same majority held by Republicans in the current Senate. If a seat becomes solidified by either party, it may be dropped from the list of competitive races and converted to non-competitive status. Also, should a non-competitive race become competitive, it may be added to the list. The asterisk next to an individual's name indicates the incumbent in the race, but several races listed here have open seats (no incumbent) due to retirement, primary loss, death, etc. Also, the D or R next to the state name indicates which party currently holds that seat.

Certain races are very tight, so this should not be considered an attempt to nail the exact outcome of the November elections but should be seen as a depiction of the political landscape as a whole. In that vein, at this point in time the chart should be read with +/-1 senatorial seat in view for each political party. Given the following numbers, this means it is currently likely that Republicans will end up with 52 - 54 seats in the Senate while Democrats can expect to realize 46 - 48 seats.

Election 2026 Insights: September 1, 2026

The U.S. Senate

Democrat

Peltola

Ossoff*

Turek

Jackson

El Sayed

Pappas

Cooper

Brown

Talarico

Republican

Sullivan*

Collins

Hinson

Collins*

Rogers

Sununu

Whatley

Husted*

Paxton

Margin

R +1%

D +4%

R +4%

R +2%

R +3% (Flip)

D +2%

D +4% (Flip)

R +2%

R +4%

State

Alaska (R)

Georgia (D)

Iowa (R)

Maine (R)

Michigan (D)

New Hampshire (D)

North Carolina (R)

Ohio (R)

Texas (R)

Election 2026 Insights: September 1, 2026

The U.S. House of Representatives

This will be a curious year where the House of Representatives is concerned and the reasons for this are numerous. First, it is difficult to know exactly how redistricting will impact the outcome of various races. On the surface, it appears that Republicans have the advantage in the redistricting war, but it is difficult to say just how many seats they might gain from that apparent win. Estimates are that Republicans gained roughly 16 seats in redistricting maneuvers while Democrats moved the needle by only 6 or 7 seats, giving Republicans a distinct advantage. It is unknown whether that advantage is sufficient for Republicans to retain the majority in the House in 2026.

Historically, mid-term elections have not been kind to the president's party. It is argued that mid-term elections tend to serve as a referendum on the president's performance as well as an attempt to offset presidential power. Consequently, the president's party tends to lose congressional seats in the mid-terms. This may not bode well for Republicans as Trump's approval rating is sitting in the low 40's. The Iran war and high gas prices may also influence the mid-term outcome. However, there are certain factors that may very well impact this coming election. The first factor is redistricting, mentioned above, that improves Republicans' prospects in 2026. Unless this election ends up being a huge blue wave, that 10-seat shift could be sufficient for Republicans to hold the majority in that chamber of the legislature.

A second major factor that may impact the election is congressional approval. Currently, congressional approval for both parties is below 20%. The number, it may be said, might be well-deserved, but there is something unusual this time around. Approval of Democrats in Congress currently sits at 18%, which is an incredibly low number for the minority party during a mid-term election season. This means that President Trump enjoys an approval rating that exceeds congressional Democrats by more than 20 points.

While Democrat congressional approval has cratered, there may be a critical factor that is responsible, and that factor may also work as a positive for Republicans in 2026. The Democrat Party is currently divided with the rise of Democratic Socialist candidates in its ranks. The rift seems to be over how quickly they can introduce socialist policies into the American political system. Those who are known as "moderate" Democrats have played the long game, seeking to introduce progressivism slowly and methodically, using left-leaning courts as a means of implementation. However, with a relatively conservative Supreme Court in place for the foreseeable future, perhaps 30% of Democrats have chosen to become more aggressive in pushing a socialist agenda, and a number have won primaries against more moderate Democrats. 

It is difficult to say exactly how this division in the Democrat Party will affect the 2026 election, but it is reasonable to conclude that a number of more moderate Democrats will shy away from voting for a Democratic Socialist. For instance, candidates who are running in states like Florida, Missouri, and Pennsylvania faces challenging odds. The fact is that this divide could cost the Democrat Party critical seats in the House of Representatives. If Democratic Socialists have difficulty winning in the general election, the Republican Party would be the beneficiary and, as a result, could maintain a majority of the seats in the lower chamber of Congress.

We will not get into individual House races this week, but here is some political fodder. It appears at the moment that Republicans have some critical advantages where the House of Representatives is concerned, some of which have been discussed here. It is simply unknown if those advantages will be enough for them to hold the majority in the House in 2026. However, the way things stand right now, it is expected that the fight for the House will be extremely close. This is interesting since the RCP Average in the generic congressional ballot shows Democrats up by 6.4 points. Still, the polls generally overstate Democrat support in the summer for some reason. In fact, prior to August, there were some outlying polls. If only the 9 polls from the last 30 days are considered, the Democrat lead has shrunk to 5.67 points, so that lead has begun a downward trend, which is not a surprise.

If the Democrat advantage in the generic ballot were to drop below 3.5 points by mid-October, which could happen if polls follow historical trends, it may spell trouble for the Democrats in the House of Representatives. If that number drops below 3.0 points, it is likely that Republicans will keep the majority. The following range of numbers will move over the next month and may shift in a particular direction as several primaries are completed, but here is an estimate of where the House races currently stand.

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

216-220

215-219

              Speculating on the 2028 Presidential Election

                                     Posted 7/30/2026

It may seem a bit early to be looking forward to the 2028 presidential election, but the truth is politics never sleeps. While 2028 is two years away, it is safe to say that Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, the Green Party, and, dare I say, Democratic Socialists, are already well into developing their plans for 2028. In fact, hardly a day goes by without an announcement about what candidates lead the 2028 pack. For instance, Zogby, considered a rather reliable pollster, shows former Vice President Kamala Harris not only leading all other potential Democrat candidates, but also leading the more popular Republican candidates.

While Zogby may be a reliable pollster, at this point in time those polls are absolutely meaningless. How can we know the impotence of such polls? Well, just a few months ago (February and March) Governor Gavin Newsome of California was killing it in the polls. That’s no longer the case. In fact, just a week ago, the main stream media was going crazy over a recent New Hampshire poll that showed Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York the leading Democrat.

Who else might be interested in taking a shot at the Democrat nomination? Pete Buttigieg, former transportation secretary under Joe Biden, J. B. Pritzker, governor of Illinois, Rahm Emanuel, former Chicago mayor, Josh Shapiro, governor of Pennsylvania, and other names have been tossed about. While Zohran Mandami, the Democratic Socialist Mayor of New York clearly has national ambitions, he is ineligible for the presidency since he was not born on American soil.  However, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez who has already been mentioned and has political positions similar to Mamdani, might actually consider running.

Where Republicans are concerned, Vice President J. D. Vance has pretty much been out in front in the polls since he took on the title of vice president in early 2025. That is certainly not uncommon. It is politically natural and expedient for a vice president to take up the reins when a president finishes his final term. On the other hand, many are impressed with the way Marco Rubio has handled his responsibilities as Secretary of State, and he has consistently held second place in polls on the Republican side of the aisle, though he has recently stated that he does not plan to enter the race. For those who wonder, it is probably safe to say that Donald Trump, Jr. will not be running for the presidency in 2028 despite speculation and the fact that his name appears in many polls.

Some commentators have suggested that a Vance-Rubio ticket might be difficult for Democrats to beat, but I am not yet fully convinced that Rubio will not run for the top spot. It is difficult to say who else on the Republican side might throw their hat into the ring. Might DeSantis, Cruz, or Ramaswamy jump in? It is possible, but it will likely depend on what polls show in late 2027. For Ramaswamy, it may well depend on how his bid for Ohio governor turns out this fall.

There has even been speculation that Tucker Carlson might be interested, although he seems to have soured on the Republican Party, so it is more likely that he would run as an independent if at all. Still, at this point it is too early to determine the likelihood, particularly since he has not suggested that he would run and his polling numbers have been extremely poor. Perhaps the most likely person to join the race would be Nikki Haley, who has demonstrated interest in the office for years. Still, she is a long shot and history suggests she would have difficulty winning the nomination. Of course, it is always possible that a new unforeseen face could surface and join the race.

These things having been said, the real question is which party is most likely to prevail in 2028 where the presidency is concerned. While it is speculative this early in the game, it seems safe to suggest that the next president of the United States will be a Republican. This is true for a couple of reasons. First, the Democrat Party has a very weak bench. After all, Kamala Harris has already lost a run for that office and Newsome likely does not have a strong enough campaign or record to survive the next two years. Additionally, men like Pritzker and Emmanuel have little to offer. Shapiro is perhaps the most appealing Democrat on paper but, while not impossible, as a Jew it would be very difficult for him to win on a Democrat ticket at the national level given the anti-Semitic sentiment that is so prevalent in today's Democrat Party.

Of course, the primary reason I see a Republican taking the White House in 2028 is the unprecedented split in the Democrat Party. The rise of Democratic Socialism seems to be splitting the party so dramatically that the Democrat Party, as we know it, may not survive. These kinds of splits creep up occasionally, but they are generally short-lived. However, that does not appear to be the case with Democratic Socialism. In fact, this faction seems to be digging in its heels. This movement, with popular voices like Representative Ocasio-Cortez and Mayor Zohran Mamdani of New York to push the platform, may even gain strength before 2028.

The split in the Democrat Party may be too difficult to overcome given that up to one-third of the party seems to be leaning further and further to the left. If someone like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez were to have a good showing in the primary process but fail to secure the nomination, it may well be that more than a few of her supporters would see the Democrat Party as too weak and a new party could be born. This would tear the Democrat Party in two and they may well have difficulty winning the presidency in the foreseeable future.

While the Democrat Party is experiencing a serious rift, the Republican Party is displaying a rather united front. Yes, there are a few Republican Senators who have been a disappointment, but the indication is that upwards of 90% of the Republican Party is unified behind Donald Trump's presidency and the MAGA movement. This bodes well for the party not only when it comes to 2028, but also for the upcoming 2026 mid-terms.

Another reason a Republican is likely to win the White House in 2028 is the organizational strength of the Republican Party, with far superior numbers where new party identification is concerned. This, weighed against the highly unpopular positions Democrats have taken on a number of issues, bodes well for the Republican Party. Over the past few years, Republicans have been gaining new voters at break-neck speed while Democrats have been bleeding registrants. This is due in part to the work of men like Scott Pressler, a conservative activist who has worked diligently to grow Republican registrations. The unpopularity of Democrat political positions on a litany of issues has only made Scott's job easier.

One final factor hurting the Democrat Party is the SAVE Act. While it is true that this voter integrity measure has not yet passed the Senate, with a large majority of voters in favor and President Trump’s heavy-handed support, I anticipate that it will. It may not happen in time for the 2026 mid-terms, but it will likely impact 2028. Senators Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Chuck Schumer of New York have both acknowledged that passage of the SAVE Act could potentially destroy the Democrat Party. Senator Slotkin recently stated that passage of the SAVE Act would make it “…hard for any Democrat in any state to win an election” and Senator Schumer admitted that the legislation would remove “more than 20 million people” from the voter rolls. Both believe those would be 20 million Democrat votes. That means Democrats would likely lose one-fourth of their voting base should the SAVE Act pass the Senate. This doesn’t even take into consideration the votes the party might lose to Democratic Socialism.

The combination of 1) the rise of Democratic Socialism, 2) the likelihood of the eventual passage of the SAVE Act, and 3) the heavy tilt of voter registrations toward the Republican Party over the past several years could leave the Democrat Party floundering. Indeed, Democrats may well be looking at dissolution and attempting to form a new political movement altogether consisting of a combination of Democrats and Democratic Socialists. Indeed, this may be their only choice. Make no mistake, this would be a hard-left leaning movement with a bent toward transforming America into a socialist/communist nation. In fact, Democratic Socialists have already begun developing their own manifesto for America.

The next race for president is obviously too far off to make solid predictions and much can happen over the next two years. In politics, a month can seem like a lifetime while a year is more like an eternity. Still, at the end of the day and with an eye on 2028, I would rather be a Republican than a Democrat at this point in time.

                   Expectations: The 2026 Congressional Ballot

                                     Posted 7/1/2026

The 2026 election is a mere four months away and the campaign season is heating up. What happens in that election will heavily impact the future of the United States. Here we will consider what to expect in the election and look at the potential aftermath depending on which side of the aisle, Democrat or Republican, controls the two chambers of Congress.

Currently, conventional wisdom suggests that the Democrat Party should be able to take control of the House of Representatives. According to Polymarket, which is a leading real-time predictions operation, Democrats currently have an 82.5% chance of taking control of that chamber. Also, according to Polymarket, Democrats have a 52% chance of taking control of the U.S. Senate. In truth, despite the odds, the Democrats have an uphill climb where the Senate is concerned. Still, to many people, 82.5% odds in the House probably seems like a mountainous number for Republicans to overcome.

While the odds currently favor the Democrat Party, it is far too early in the process for these numbers to be meaningful. It is said that many, if not most people don’t even begin to pay strategic attention to coming elections until after Labor Day weekend, so there is no reason for Republicans to be too discouraged at this point. The election may only be four months away, but four months is like a lifetime where politics is concerned.

One reason Republicans should not be discouraged is the low approval rating of congressional Democrats, which is perhaps the lowest it has ever been. A second reason, and perhaps the more impactful reason that Republicans should not be discouraged is the monumental rift that is building in the Democrat Party. Democratic Socialists have been coming to the forefront over the past couple of years, and that movement is beginning to split the Democrat Party. How that will impact the elections is unknown, but it will certainly have an impact.

The Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot currently shows Democrats with a 5.6-point lead. However, that number is skewed for two reasons. First, that number is generally skewed toward the Democrat Party by a couple of points. Second, there are some real outliers included in those polls that throw the numbers off dramatically. However, Quantus Insights, one of the most accurate pollsters, reports a Democrat lead of 4 points, which is probably relatively accurate. I estimate that lead to be 3.5 to 4 points. These numbers could tighten in the coming months.

The following is really a broad brush look at what to expect in November, but it is important to remember that various races and situations could change. Nonetheless, it is a relatively safe bet that Republicans will hold the majority in the Senate. There are only about a half dozen Senate races that will decide control of the Senate, and Republicans have, I believe, a better than even chance to win the necessary races. We will get into the details of some of those races at a later date. While it is early, I currently see a Senate consisting of R-52 and D-48. However, there is an off chance that John Fetterman will be forced to switch parties, which would only strengthen the Republican position.

Where the House of Representatives is concerned, conventional wisdom states that Republicans currently have 211 seats that might be considered safe, likely Republican, or lean Republican. Democrats, on the other hand, have 205 seats fitting those categories. That leaves 19 toss-up seats. Republicans need only win 7 of those toss-up seats to keep control of the chamber. Given the turmoil and division in the Democrat Party, at the moment I give Republicans an even chance.

These things having been said, should the Democrats win control of one or both chambers, what can we expect? With the House of Representatives, this is a no-brainer. The next two years will be filled with impeachment charges being brought against Donald Trump. It will be non-stop. While there is no chance that any of those charges will result in removing Trump from office, that is not really the goal. What the Democrats will do is attempt to keep the president so tied up in impeachment hearings that it will limit his ability to accomplish his agenda.

Where the Senate is concerned, if Democrats were to take control, on day one we would see the end of the filibuster. They would then quickly make changes to Senate rules that would heavily favor the Democrat Party. It is likely, then, that their next move would be to add Puerto Rico as a state in order to quickly be able to add two additional senators. There has been talk about also making Washington DC a state, but such an attempt would face substantive constitutional hurdles and a presidential signature. Consequently, this move would certainly be unsuccessful. Nor could the Democrats institute new laws without a presidential signature.

Some have suggested that the Senate should seek to pack the Supreme Court with four additional liberal justices. However, this is currently a pipe dream. After all, nominations for Supreme Court justices come from the president, and it is hardly likely that Trump would agree to pack the court with liberals. Consequently, while Democrats could do some damage, that damage would be limited to some degree. However, that party is devious and would undoubtedly try to cause as much harm as possible.

Please stay tuned for updates as the election draws closer. We will do our best to keep you informed.

                Paxton v. Cornyn - The Power of MAGA

                                   Posted 05/23/2026

The Republican runoff for the U.S. Senate race in Texas takes place on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. On Tuesday, May 19th, one week before the runoff, President Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. The endorsement is significant since, so far during the primary season, Donald Trump is 37-0 where endorsements are concerned. Still, it is likely Paxton would have prevailed without the endorsement. However, once the endorsement was given, John Cornyn pretty much packed up his campaign and closed shop.

John Thune, majority leader of the Senate, was not pleased with Trump’s endorsement of Paxton for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that Cornyn is his close friend and they have worked together in the Senate for more than two decades. However, Thune had other reasons to be disappointed. First of all, Thune and Cornyn are like-minded where politics is concerned. This is especially true when it comes to the U.S. Senate. For instance, both believe in procedure over substance and orthodoxy over accomplishment. This has been made evident most recently where the SAVE Act is concerned as Thune has proven ineffectual in getting the proposal through the Senate.

The SAVE Act, which is a Trump priority in that it would provide greater security during American elections, has been stalled in the Senate for months. In fact, is seems more accurate to say that it is an American priority since it is supported by the vast majority of citizens – Republican and Democrat alike. However, Democrats in the Senate, along with certain Republicans like Thune and Cornyn, are not in favor. The Democrat position is understandable given their affinity for illegal aliens. Yet, the fact that certain Republicans oppose the bill is precarious. While Cornyn did make a feeble attempt at supporting the measure in a ploy to secure the Senate nomination, his effort was too little too late.

John Thune and John Cornyn are what are known colloquially as RINO’s (Republicans In Name Only). While they wear the Republican moniker, they tend to think and act more like moderate Democrats. It was surprising, then, when President Trump endorsed Thune for majority leader over Rick Scott from Florida in 2025. Evidently the president believed he could influence Thune’s decision-making.

A second reason for Thune’s disappointment is that, unlike his friend John Cornyn, Ken Paxton is a firm supporter of Donald Trump. Consequently, he is not on the same page with Thune where Senate politics is concerned. It might be more accurate to say that Paxton is a MAGA candidate. In fact, Paxton joins a number of other MAGA candidates that seem to be cleaning up in primaries this year. The Republican Party appears to have had its fill of RINO’s and they are being weeded out systematically, making Thune’s attempt at appeasing both Senate Republicans and Democrats even more difficult. The pressure will be on Thune to meet MAGA’s demands.

Trump’s endorsement of Paxton could be seen as a shot across the bow for John Thune. While Thune has two years left in his current term as senator, he may find himself fighting a strong MAGA headwind in 2028, and MAGA has become a formidable political force. Additionally, Trump may be signaling to Thune that his leadership role in the Senate is in jeopardy. Assuming MAGA candidates win Senate seats in the coming election, if Trump wants Thune out, he will be out.

It is highly likely that Ken Paxton would have won the runoff on Tuesday even without Trump’s endorsement. He endeared himself to Texas Republicans when, back in March, he offered to sacrifice his candidacy on the altar of the SAVE Act. He vowed to bow out of the race if the Senate would pass this piece of legislature. Putting the country before his own ambitions is unheard of in politics today, and it was easy to see in subsequent polling that the people appreciated the selflessness.

For those who wonder whether Paxton can win the Senate seat in Texas against a smooth-talking, charismatic Democrat like James Talarico, only time will tell and that time will come in November. The last time Texas elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate was 1988 when Lloyd Benson, who first won the seat in 1970, was re-elected. The last time Texas sent a non-incumbent Democrat to the Senate was 1993. At that time, Robert Krueger was appointed (not elected) by the governor to fill a Texas vacancy left by Lloyd Bentsen’s resignation. However, Krueger was what might be considered a very conservative Democrat. In today’s politics, he might even be considered a moderate Republican given the positions the two parties have taken on assorted issues. Still, it has been 56 years since Texas elected a non-incumbent Democrat (Bentsen) to the U.S. Senate.

Every time a seemingly charismatic Democrat runs for the position of U.S. Senator in Texas, Democrats get excited. This was true of Paul Sadler in 2012, Beto O’Rouke in 2018, and now James Talarico. Could this be the one? Will Texas elect a Democrat Senator? Will Texas finally become a blue state? Yet, none of these Democrat candidates prevailed. Still, in 2026 among Democrat movers and shakers, hopes and expectations run high.

That having been said, Democrats insist that they have a chance against Paxton who, they claim, has some serious baggage. He has been charged with assorted indiscretions and the Texas legislature even sought his impeachment. Paxton supporters will argue, however, that those allegations, as well as the movement to impeach, were purely politically motivated, and there is a strong argument to be made.

While Paxton may encounter some headwinds, Talarico may well be facing a political hurricane in his run for the Senate. His views are seriously out of step with the general Texas citizenry. His political positions are heavily progressive (and may be considered woke) and his assorted controversial statements concerning God, sex, abortion, etc., will undoubtedly haunt him in a Texas general election. Consequently, for those Democrats who have high hopes to take a Texas Senate seat from Republicans in 2026, this would not be a good year to go to Vegas and place any bets.

                           California Governor’s Race

                                   Posted 03/27/2026

It probably seems unthinkable to most people that a Republican could ever again step into the governorship of the state of California. However, the truth is that the office has been held by Republicans more often than one might think. Arnold Schwarzenegger (2003-2011), Pete Wilson (1991-1999), George Deukmejian (1983-1991), and Ronald Regan (1967-1975) were all Republicans. This means that Republicans held the office for 32 of the last 59 years. In fact, of the 40 California governors who have held the office since 1849, 21 were Republicans, 14 were Democrats, and 5 represented an independent party.

While history does record a number of Republican governors in California, Democrats have held the office since 2011. It is also true that California’s legislature has been dominated by the Democrat Party since 1996. Currently the California Senate consists of 30 Democrats and 10 Republicans while the Democrats have a 60-20 majority in the California House of Representatives. As a result, it may be observed that California politics and political policies have taken a substantial left turn over the last couple of decades.

In 2010, California adopted what has endearingly been labeled a jungle primary. In such a primary, voters cast votes for every candidate running for a political office. In other words, where the California governorship is concerned, every candidate from every political party is on the same primary ballot. When those ballots are counted the two candidates garnering the greatest number of votes move on to compete in the general election. It was believed at the time that this system would serve to bolster Democrat strength in the state going forward.

The coming 2026 election has seen an interesting development in California. The state’s primary will be held on June 2, 2026 and there are currently 10 gubernatorial candidates in the running. For the Democrat Party this is unfortunate since 8 of those candidates are running as Democrats. In the last few polls that have been taken in California, the 2 Republican candidates are making a strong showing while 8 Democrat candidates are splitting the Democrat votes. In fact, in the latest Berkley IGS poll taken between 3/9 and 3/15, the Republicans led all Democrat candidates. As reported by Real Clear Politics, the percentages for the top 8 candidates were as follows:

Hilton (R) Bianco (R) Swalwell (D) Porter (D) Steyer (D) Becerra (D) Villaraigosa (D) Mahan (D)

17 16 13 13 10 5 4 4

A California VOTER Index Survey conducted by EVARITUS RESEARCH over the period of March 12-17 showed similar results. As these numbers bear out, with so many Democrats in the race for governor, if no Democrats bow out of the primary, it would not be an impossible feat for the 2 Republican candidates to receive the highest number of votes in the coming primary. In that case, only Republican candidates would appear on the ballot for the general election in November resulting in a Republican California governor – the first since 2011.

How did Democrats in California, of all places, get themselves in such a bind? A major issue is the fact that the party failed to endorse a single candidate for governor at their recent state convention, leaving the door open to any and all who wished to step through. They evidently believed that one or two strong candidates would eventually emerge and the party would unite behind those leaders. However, that has not happened.

On March 3, 2026, Rusty Hicks, the California Democrat Party Chair, wrote an Open Letter to the Democrat Candidates for Governor, urging each one to consider seriously their viability in the race. The goal was to convince the candidates to put party first. The hope was that those polling too low to have any chance of winning might step aside and allow their supporters to choose a stronger candidate. So far that strategy has not worked.

Given the left-leaning nature of California voters, it is possible that a Democrat candidate could receive a large number of votes in the general election as a write-in candidate. However, that person’s odds of winning in the general election would be slim since it is likely that even write-in votes would be split among the numerous Democrat candidates.

It is probably a safe bet that, should a Democrat be among the top two vote-getters in the primary, the Democrat would win in the general election. After all, Californians generally vote heavily Democrat. Then again, it could be there is a good reason no Democrat candidate is currently able to close the deal. Perhaps the people of California have felt the weight of Democrat policies and are looking for a change. With the jungle primary just two months away, it will be interesting to see if the Republican candidates can, indeed, come out on top.

________________________

                            U.S. Senate Races to Watch

                                    Posted 03/20/2026

Before delving too deeply, it should be noted that it is highly unlikely that Democrats will regain control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, and there are multiple reasons for this. You see, 35 Senate seats will be decided in November. Of those seats, 33 are reaching the end of their six-year terms while two constitute special elections. Also, of those 35 seats, 22 are currently held by Republicans while 13 are currently Democrat seats.

Some may quickly conclude that this makes the Republican majority in the Senate vulnerable, providing a prime opportunity for Democrats tosnatch the majority. However, of the 35 seats that will be decided in November, only ten seats are considered open possibilities for a shift from the incumbent party. The seats in question are Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. Of these 10 seats, 6 are currently held by Republicans and 4 by Democrats.

When the presidency is held by a political party, the vice-president becomes the president of the Senate. The vice-president does not vote on bills in the Senate except in the case of a tie vote at which time the vice-president casts the tie-breaking vote. Given this tie-breaking advantage, if the Senate has 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats, the party controlling the White House is considered the majority party. This means that, in order for Democrats to gain the majority in the Senate, they would need to hold 51 Senate seats. 

Democrats currently hold 45 Senate seats, and they have two Independent Senators who happen to caucus with and vote with Democrats, giving them a total of 47 seats. However, the Democrats have 4 seats that are questionable wins come November. That means approaching the November mid-terms, Democrats have 43 sure Senate seats. They will add to those 43 seats as they win some November races. However, since there are 10 Senate seats with questionable outcomes (6 Republican and 4 Democrat), the Democrats would need to win 8 out of 10 of those races to control the Senate. That is the unlikeliest of outcomes.

As things stand right now, it appears that Democrats have opportunities to make gains in places like Maine and North Carolina - seats currently held by Republicans. On the other hand, Republicans stand a reasonable chance of making gains in places like Georgia and Michigan. Consequently, for Democrats who believe they have a remote chance to control the Senate in 2027, it is not really feasible.  That is not a partisan comment; it is simply a logical conclusion based on the factors influencing the outcome. In fact, Republicans may stand a better chance of holding their current six-seat majority in the Senate than the Democrats have of taking the majority given the shifts in voter registration toward the Republican Party that have occurred in recent years.________________________

                               Other Election Matters

                                    Posted 03/20/2026

The House of Representatives is quite the story. With a plethora of congressmen and women exiting the House, and with such a razor-thin Republican majority, it is questionable whether they will be able to hold that majority. However, that does not mean it will be impossible. After all, at this point in time even the names of candidates in certain races are unknown and will remain that way until primaries are finished. Additionally, outcomes in the House of Representatives are far more susceptible to changing economic and social conditions in the 2 - 3 months prior to election day. Still, there will be a strong effort here at Constitution Matters to keep everyone informed about the status of close races as well as the general political landscape.

A critical factor that may well influence the outcome of the 2026 mid-terms in the House of Representatives is the war with Iran. Presidents who move the U.S. into war with other nations have not fared well over the last century. If there is a chink in the armor of a Republican majority in the House, it well could be U.S. involvement in Iran, particularly if the war lasts more than a very few weeks and/or America ends up sending troops into Iran to fight a ground war. If either of those happens, it will certainly open the door for the Democrats to win the majority in the House.

One thing Constitution Matters cannot account for is election shenanigans (voter fraud). While the mainstream narrative insists that fraudulent voting is not widespread, it is a serious issue (see the Constitution Commentary on this website titled "The 2020 Election...By the Numbers). Indeed, fraudulent voting has become a major factor in election outcomes - particularly at the county and municipal levels where as little as 100 fraudulent votes could wrongly place an individual in a political office. Hopefully this will be less of a factor in 2026.

Quite often headlines will appear stating boldly that Republicans are basically conceding the 2026 mid-terms in both the House and the Senate. It is important to understand that headlines and articles like these are not news articles...they are propaganda. Republicans, who go by a different rule book than Democrats, rarely employ these kinds of tactics. The fact is that no political forecaster (left-leaning or right-leaning) is currently predicting a Democrat majority in the Senate come November. The general consensus is that Republicans will hold the majority with either 51 or 52 seats once the dust clears. Constitution Matters will monitor the Senate races closely, but right now the expectation here is that Republicans will end up with between 51 and 53 Senate seats in November 2026.

What can you expect from Constitution Matters leading into the mid-terms? Here's an example. Currently, the Real Clear Politics average for pollsters weighing the generic congressional vote shows Democrats leading Republicans 47.8% to 43.1%, giving Democrats a 4.7% advantage. However, after eliminating polls of the general public (which lack substance) and weighing other polls based on historical accuracy as well as the character of the poll sample (likely voters or registered voters), Constitution Matters has the race slightly closer with Democrats holding an estimated 2.4% lead (Democrats 47.4% - Republicans 45.0%). Of course, it is important to keep in mind that with the election nine months away, these numbers are meaningless. Far too much can happen over the coming months that could impact the election. Still, here at Constitution Matters you can expect insights like this as the election draws near.

Contact

Questions? Reach out anytime.

Email:

contact@constitutionmatters.net

© 2025. All rights reserved.