Speculating on the 2028 Presidential Election

                                     Posted 7/30/2026

It may seem a bit early to be looking forward to the 2028 presidential election, but the truth is politics never sleeps. While 2028 is two years away, it is safe to say that Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, the Green Party, and, dare I say, Democratic Socialists, are already well into developing their plans for 2028. In fact, hardly a day goes by without an announcement about what candidates lead the 2028 pack. For instance, Zogby, considered a rather reliable pollster, shows former Vice President Kamala Harris not only leading all other potential Democrat candidates, but also leading the more popular Republican candidates.

While Zogby may be a reliable pollster, at this point in time those polls are absolutely meaningless. How can we know the impotence of such polls? Well, just a few months ago (February and March) Governor Gavin Newsome of California was killing it in the polls. That’s no longer the case. In fact, just a week ago, the main stream media was going crazy over a recent New Hampshire poll that showed Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York the leading Democrat.

Who else might be interested in taking a shot at the Democrat nomination? Pete Buttigieg, former transportation secretary under Joe Biden, J. B. Pritzker, governor of Illinois, Rahm Emanuel, former Chicago mayor, Josh Shapiro, governor of Pennsylvania, and other names have been tossed about. While Zohran Mandami, the Democratic Socialist Mayor of New York clearly has national ambitions, he is ineligible for the presidency since he was not born on American soil.  However, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez who has already been mentioned and has political positions similar to Mamdani, might actually consider running.

Where Republicans are concerned, Vice President J. D. Vance has pretty much been out in front in the polls since he took on the title of vice president in early 2025. That is certainly not uncommon. It is politically natural and expedient for a vice president to take up the reins when a president finishes his final term. On the other hand, many are impressed with the way Marco Rubio has handled his responsibilities as Secretary of State, and he has consistently held second place in polls on the Republican side of the aisle, though he has recently stated that he does not plan to enter the race. For those who wonder, it is probably safe to say that Donald Trump, Jr. will not be running for the presidency in 2028 despite speculation and the fact that his name appears in many polls.

Some commentators have suggested that a Vance-Rubio ticket might be difficult for Democrats to beat, but I am not yet fully convinced that Rubio will not run for the top spot. It is difficult to say who else on the Republican side might throw their hat into the ring. Might DeSantis, Cruz, or Ramaswamy jump in? It is possible, but it will likely depend on what polls show in late 2027. For Ramaswamy, it may well depend on how his bid for Ohio governor turns out this fall.

There has even been speculation that Tucker Carlson might be interested, although he seems to have soured on the Republican Party, so it is more likely that he would run as an independent if at all. Still, at this point it is too early to determine the likelihood, particularly since he has not suggested that he would run and his polling numbers have been extremely poor. Perhaps the most likely person to join the race would be Nikki Haley, who has demonstrated interest in the office for years. Still, she is a long shot and history suggests she would have difficulty winning the nomination. Of course, it is always possible that a new unforeseen face could surface and join the race.

These things having been said, the real question is which party is most likely to prevail in 2028 where the presidency is concerned. While it is speculative this early in the game, it seems safe to suggest that the next president of the United States will be a Republican. This is true for a couple of reasons. First, the Democrat Party has a very weak bench. After all, Kamala Harris has already lost a run for that office and Newsome likely does not have a strong enough campaign or record to survive the next two years. Additionally, men like Pritzker and Emmanuel have little to offer. Shapiro is perhaps the most appealing Democrat on paper but, while not impossible, as a Jew it would be very difficult for him to win on a Democrat ticket at the national level given the anti-Semitic sentiment that is so prevalent in today's Democrat Party.

Of course, the primary reason I see a Republican taking the White House in 2028 is the unprecedented split in the Democrat Party. The rise of Democratic Socialism seems to be splitting the party so dramatically that the Democrat Party, as we know it, may not survive. These kinds of splits creep up occasionally, but they are generally short-lived. However, that does not appear to be the case with Democratic Socialism. In fact, this faction seems to be digging in its heels. This movement, with popular voices like Representative Ocasio-Cortez and Mayor Zohran Mamdani of New York to push the platform, may even gain strength before 2028.

The split in the Democrat Party may be too difficult to overcome given that up to one-third of the party seems to be leaning further and further to the left. If someone like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez were to have a good showing in the primary process but fail to secure the nomination, it may well be that more than a few of her supporters would see the Democrat Party as too weak and a new party could be born. This would tear the Democrat Party in two and they may well have difficulty winning the presidency in the foreseeable future.

While the Democrat Party is experiencing a serious rift, the Republican Party is displaying a rather united front. Yes, there are a few Republican Senators who have been a disappointment, but the indication is that upwards of 90% of the Republican Party is unified behind Donald Trump's presidency and the MAGA movement. This bodes well for the party not only when it comes to 2028, but also for the upcoming 2026 mid-terms.

Another reason a Republican is likely to win the White House in 2028 is the organizational strength of the Republican Party, with far superior numbers where new party identification is concerned. This, weighed against the highly unpopular positions Democrats have taken on a number of issues, bodes well for the Republican Party. Over the past few years, Republicans have been gaining new voters at break-neck speed while Democrats have been bleeding registrants. This is due in part to the work of men like Scott Pressler, a conservative activist who has worked diligently to grow Republican registrations. The unpopularity of Democrat political positions on a litany of issues has only made Scott's job easier.

One final factor hurting the Democrat Party is the SAVE Act. While it is true that this voter integrity measure has not yet passed the Senate, with a large majority of voters in favor and President Trump’s heavy-handed support, I anticipate that it will. It may not happen in time for the 2026 mid-terms, but it will likely impact 2028. Senators Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Chuck Schumer of New York have both acknowledged that passage of the SAVE Act could potentially destroy the Democrat Party. Senator Slotkin recently stated that passage of the SAVE Act would make it “…hard for any Democrat in any state to win an election” and Senator Schumer admitted that the legislation would remove “more than 20 million people” from the voter rolls. Both believe those would be 20 million Democrat votes. That means Democrats would likely lose one-fourth of their voting base should the SAVE Act pass the Senate. This doesn’t even take into consideration the votes the party might lose to Democratic Socialism.

The combination of 1) the rise of Democratic Socialism, 2) the likelihood of the eventual passage of the SAVE Act, and 3) the heavy tilt of voter registrations toward the Republican Party over the past several years could leave the Democrat Party floundering. Indeed, Democrats may well be looking at dissolution and attempting to form a new political movement altogether consisting of a combination of Democrats and Democratic Socialists. Indeed, this may be their only choice. Make no mistake, this would be a hard-left leaning movement with a bent toward transforming America into a socialist/communist nation. In fact, Democratic Socialists have already begun developing their own manifesto for America.

The next race for president is obviously too far off to make solid predictions and much can happen over the next two years. In politics, a month can seem like a lifetime while a year is more like an eternity. Still, at the end of the day and with an eye on 2028, I would rather be a Republican than a Democrat at this point in time.

                   Expectations: The 2026 Congressional Ballot

                                     Posted 7/1/2026

The 2026 election is a mere four months away and the campaign season is heating up. What happens in that election will heavily impact the future of the United States. Here we will consider what to expect in the election and look at the potential aftermath depending on which side of the aisle, Democrat or Republican, controls the two chambers of Congress.

Currently, conventional wisdom suggests that the Democrat Party should be able to take control of the House of Representatives. According to Polymarket, which is a leading real-time predictions operation, Democrats currently have an 82.5% chance of taking control of that chamber. Also, according to Polymarket, Democrats have a 52% chance of taking control of the U.S. Senate. In truth, despite the odds, the Democrats have an uphill climb where the Senate is concerned. Still, to many people, 82.5% odds in the House probably seems like a mountainous number for Republicans to overcome.

While the odds currently favor the Democrat Party, it is far too early in the process for these numbers to be meaningful. It is said that many, if not most people don’t even begin to pay strategic attention to coming elections until after Labor Day weekend, so there is no reason for Republicans to be too discouraged at this point. The election may only be four months away, but four months is like a lifetime where politics is concerned.

One reason Republicans should not be discouraged is the low approval rating of congressional Democrats, which is perhaps the lowest it has ever been. A second reason, and perhaps the more impactful reason that Republicans should not be discouraged is the monumental rift that is building in the Democrat Party. Democratic Socialists have been coming to the forefront over the past couple of years, and that movement is beginning to split the Democrat Party. How that will impact the elections is unknown, but it will certainly have an impact.

The Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot currently shows Democrats with a 5.6-point lead. However, that number is skewed for two reasons. First, that number is generally skewed toward the Democrat Party by a couple of points. Second, there are some real outliers included in those polls that throw the numbers off dramatically. However, Quantus Insights, one of the most accurate pollsters, reports a Democrat lead of 4 points, which is probably relatively accurate. I estimate that lead to be 3.5 to 4 points. These numbers could tighten in the coming months.

The following is really a broad brush look at what to expect in November, but it is important to remember that various races and situations could change. Nonetheless, it is a relatively safe bet that Republicans will hold the majority in the Senate. There are only about a half dozen Senate races that will decide control of the Senate, and Republicans have, I believe, a better than even chance to win the necessary races. We will get into the details of some of those races at a later date. While it is early, I currently see a Senate consisting of R-52 and D-48. However, there is an off chance that John Fetterman will be forced to switch parties, which would only strengthen the Republican position.

Where the House of Representatives is concerned, conventional wisdom states that Republicans currently have 211 seats that might be considered safe, likely Republican, or lean Republican. Democrats, on the other hand, have 205 seats fitting those categories. That leaves 19 toss-up seats. Republicans need only win 7 of those toss-up seats to keep control of the chamber. Given the turmoil and division in the Democrat Party, at the moment I give Republicans an even chance.

These things having been said, should the Democrats win control of one or both chambers, what can we expect? With the House of Representatives, this is a no-brainer. The next two years will be filled with impeachment charges being brought against Donald Trump. It will be non-stop. While there is no chance that any of those charges will result in removing Trump from office, that is not really the goal. What the Democrats will do is attempt to keep the president so tied up in impeachment hearings that it will limit his ability to accomplish his agenda.

Where the Senate is concerned, if Democrats were to take control, on day one we would see the end of the filibuster. They would then quickly make changes to Senate rules that would heavily favor the Democrat Party. It is likely, then, that their next move would be to add Puerto Rico as a state in order to quickly be able to add two additional senators. There has been talk about also making Washington DC a state, but such an attempt would face substantive constitutional hurdles and a presidential signature. Consequently, this move would certainly be unsuccessful. Nor could the Democrats institute new laws without a presidential signature.

Some have suggested that the Senate should seek to pack the Supreme Court with four additional liberal justices. However, this is currently a pipe dream. After all, nominations for Supreme Court justices come from the president, and it is hardly likely that Trump would agree to pack the court with liberals. Consequently, while Democrats could do some damage, that damage would be limited to some degree. However, that party is devious and would undoubtedly try to cause as much harm as possible.

Please stay tuned for updates as the election draws closer. We will do our best to keep you informed.

                Paxton v. Cornyn - The Power of MAGA

                                   Posted 05/23/2026

The Republican runoff for the U.S. Senate race in Texas takes place on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. On Tuesday, May 19th, one week before the runoff, President Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. The endorsement is significant since, so far during the primary season, Donald Trump is 37-0 where endorsements are concerned. Still, it is likely Paxton would have prevailed without the endorsement. However, once the endorsement was given, John Cornyn pretty much packed up his campaign and closed shop.

John Thune, majority leader of the Senate, was not pleased with Trump’s endorsement of Paxton for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that Cornyn is his close friend and they have worked together in the Senate for more than two decades. However, Thune had other reasons to be disappointed. First of all, Thune and Cornyn are like-minded where politics is concerned. This is especially true when it comes to the U.S. Senate. For instance, both believe in procedure over substance and orthodoxy over accomplishment. This has been made evident most recently where the SAVE Act is concerned as Thune has proven ineffectual in getting the proposal through the Senate.

The SAVE Act, which is a Trump priority in that it would provide greater security during American elections, has been stalled in the Senate for months. In fact, is seems more accurate to say that it is an American priority since it is supported by the vast majority of citizens – Republican and Democrat alike. However, Democrats in the Senate, along with certain Republicans like Thune and Cornyn, are not in favor. The Democrat position is understandable given their affinity for illegal aliens. Yet, the fact that certain Republicans oppose the bill is precarious. While Cornyn did make a feeble attempt at supporting the measure in a ploy to secure the Senate nomination, his effort was too little too late.

John Thune and John Cornyn are what are known colloquially as RINO’s (Republicans In Name Only). While they wear the Republican moniker, they tend to think and act more like moderate Democrats. It was surprising, then, when President Trump endorsed Thune for majority leader over Rick Scott from Florida in 2025. Evidently the president believed he could influence Thune’s decision-making.

A second reason for Thune’s disappointment is that, unlike his friend John Cornyn, Ken Paxton is a firm supporter of Donald Trump. Consequently, he is not on the same page with Thune where Senate politics is concerned. It might be more accurate to say that Paxton is a MAGA candidate. In fact, Paxton joins a number of other MAGA candidates that seem to be cleaning up in primaries this year. The Republican Party appears to have had its fill of RINO’s and they are being weeded out systematically, making Thune’s attempt at appeasing both Senate Republicans and Democrats even more difficult. The pressure will be on Thune to meet MAGA’s demands.

Trump’s endorsement of Paxton could be seen as a shot across the bow for John Thune. While Thune has two years left in his current term as senator, he may find himself fighting a strong MAGA headwind in 2028, and MAGA has become a formidable political force. Additionally, Trump may be signaling to Thune that his leadership role in the Senate is in jeopardy. Assuming MAGA candidates win Senate seats in the coming election, if Trump wants Thune out, he will be out.

It is highly likely that Ken Paxton would have won the runoff on Tuesday even without Trump’s endorsement. He endeared himself to Texas Republicans when, back in March, he offered to sacrifice his candidacy on the altar of the SAVE Act. He vowed to bow out of the race if the Senate would pass this piece of legislature. Putting the country before his own ambitions is unheard of in politics today, and it was easy to see in subsequent polling that the people appreciated the selflessness.

For those who wonder whether Paxton can win the Senate seat in Texas against a smooth-talking, charismatic Democrat like James Talarico, only time will tell and that time will come in November. The last time Texas elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate was 1988 when Lloyd Benson, who first won the seat in 1970, was re-elected. The last time Texas sent a non-incumbent Democrat to the Senate was 1993. At that time, Robert Krueger was appointed (not elected) by the governor to fill a Texas vacancy left by Lloyd Bentsen’s resignation. However, Krueger was what might be considered a very conservative Democrat. In today’s politics, he might even be considered a moderate Republican given the positions the two parties have taken on assorted issues. Still, it has been 56 years since Texas elected a non-incumbent Democrat (Bentsen) to the U.S. Senate.

Every time a seemingly charismatic Democrat runs for the position of U.S. Senator in Texas, Democrats get excited. This was true of Paul Sadler in 2012, Beto O’Rouke in 2018, and now James Talarico. Could this be the one? Will Texas elect a Democrat Senator? Will Texas finally become a blue state? Yet, none of these Democrat candidates prevailed. Still, in 2026 among Democrat movers and shakers, hopes and expectations run high.

That having been said, Democrats insist that they have a chance against Paxton who, they claim, has some serious baggage. He has been charged with assorted indiscretions and the Texas legislature even sought his impeachment. Paxton supporters will argue, however, that those allegations, as well as the movement to impeach, were purely politically motivated, and there is a strong argument to be made.

While Paxton may encounter some headwinds, Talarico may well be facing a political hurricane in his run for the Senate. His views are seriously out of step with the general Texas citizenry. His political positions are heavily progressive (and may be considered woke) and his assorted controversial statements concerning God, sex, abortion, etc., will undoubtedly haunt him in a Texas general election. Consequently, for those Democrats who have high hopes to take a Texas Senate seat from Republicans in 2026, this would not be a good year to go to Vegas and place any bets.

                           California Governor’s Race

                                   Posted 03/27/2026

It probably seems unthinkable to most people that a Republican could ever again step into the governorship of the state of California. However, the truth is that the office has been held by Republicans more often than one might think. Arnold Schwarzenegger (2003-2011), Pete Wilson (1991-1999), George Deukmejian (1983-1991), and Ronald Regan (1967-1975) were all Republicans. This means that Republicans held the office for 32 of the last 59 years. In fact, of the 40 California governors who have held the office since 1849, 21 were Republicans, 14 were Democrats, and 5 represented an independent party.

While history does record a number of Republican governors in California, Democrats have held the office since 2011. It is also true that California’s legislature has been dominated by the Democrat Party since 1996. Currently the California Senate consists of 30 Democrats and 10 Republicans while the Democrats have a 60-20 majority in the California House of Representatives. As a result, it may be observed that California politics and political policies have taken a substantial left turn over the last couple of decades.

In 2010, California adopted what has endearingly been labeled a jungle primary. In such a primary, voters cast votes for every candidate running for a political office. In other words, where the California governorship is concerned, every candidate from every political party is on the same primary ballot. When those ballots are counted the two candidates garnering the greatest number of votes move on to compete in the general election. It was believed at the time that this system would serve to bolster Democrat strength in the state going forward.

The coming 2026 election has seen an interesting development in California. The state’s primary will be held on June 2, 2026 and there are currently 10 gubernatorial candidates in the running. For the Democrat Party this is unfortunate since 8 of those candidates are running as Democrats. In the last few polls that have been taken in California, the 2 Republican candidates are making a strong showing while 8 Democrat candidates are splitting the Democrat votes. In fact, in the latest Berkley IGS poll taken between 3/9 and 3/15, the Republicans led all Democrat candidates. As reported by Real Clear Politics, the percentages for the top 8 candidates were as follows:

Hilton (R) Bianco (R) Swalwell (D) Porter (D) Steyer (D) Becerra (D) Villaraigosa (D) Mahan (D)

17 16 13 13 10 5 4 4

A California VOTER Index Survey conducted by EVARITUS RESEARCH over the period of March 12-17 showed similar results. As these numbers bear out, with so many Democrats in the race for governor, if no Democrats bow out of the primary, it would not be an impossible feat for the 2 Republican candidates to receive the highest number of votes in the coming primary. In that case, only Republican candidates would appear on the ballot for the general election in November resulting in a Republican California governor – the first since 2011.

How did Democrats in California, of all places, get themselves in such a bind? A major issue is the fact that the party failed to endorse a single candidate for governor at their recent state convention, leaving the door open to any and all who wished to step through. They evidently believed that one or two strong candidates would eventually emerge and the party would unite behind those leaders. However, that has not happened.

On March 3, 2026, Rusty Hicks, the California Democrat Party Chair, wrote an Open Letter to the Democrat Candidates for Governor, urging each one to consider seriously their viability in the race. The goal was to convince the candidates to put party first. The hope was that those polling too low to have any chance of winning might step aside and allow their supporters to choose a stronger candidate. So far that strategy has not worked.

Given the left-leaning nature of California voters, it is possible that a Democrat candidate could receive a large number of votes in the general election as a write-in candidate. However, that person’s odds of winning in the general election would be slim since it is likely that even write-in votes would be split among the numerous Democrat candidates.

It is probably a safe bet that, should a Democrat be among the top two vote-getters in the primary, the Democrat would win in the general election. After all, Californians generally vote heavily Democrat. Then again, it could be there is a good reason no Democrat candidate is currently able to close the deal. Perhaps the people of California have felt the weight of Democrat policies and are looking for a change. With the jungle primary just two months away, it will be interesting to see if the Republican candidates can, indeed, come out on top.

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                            U.S. Senate Races to Watch

                                    Posted 03/20/2026

Before delving too deeply, it should be noted that it is highly unlikely that Democrats will regain control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, and there are multiple reasons for this. You see, 35 Senate seats will be decided in November. Of those seats, 33 are reaching the end of their six-year terms while two constitute special elections. Also, of those 35 seats, 22 are currently held by Republicans while 13 are currently Democrat seats.

Some may quickly conclude that this makes the Republican majority in the Senate vulnerable, providing a prime opportunity for Democrats tosnatch the majority. However, of the 35 seats that will be decided in November, only ten seats are considered open possibilities for a shift from the incumbent party. The seats in question are Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. Of these 10 seats, 6 are currently held by Republicans and 4 by Democrats.

When the presidency is held by a political party, the vice-president becomes the president of the Senate. The vice-president does not vote on bills in the Senate except in the case of a tie vote at which time the vice-president casts the tie-breaking vote. Given this tie-breaking advantage, if the Senate has 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats, the party controlling the White House is considered the majority party. This means that, in order for Democrats to gain the majority in the Senate, they would need to hold 51 Senate seats. 

Democrats currently hold 45 Senate seats, and they have two Independent Senators who happen to caucus with and vote with Democrats, giving them a total of 47 seats. However, the Democrats have 4 seats that are questionable wins come November. That means approaching the November mid-terms, Democrats have 43 sure Senate seats. They will add to those 43 seats as they win some November races. However, since there are 10 Senate seats with questionable outcomes (6 Republican and 4 Democrat), the Democrats would need to win 8 out of 10 of those races to control the Senate. That is the unlikeliest of outcomes.

As things stand right now, it appears that Democrats have opportunities to make gains in places like Maine and North Carolina - seats currently held by Republicans. On the other hand, Republicans stand a reasonable chance of making gains in places like Georgia and Michigan. Consequently, for Democrats who believe they have a remote chance to control the Senate in 2027, it is not really feasible.  That is not a partisan comment; it is simply a logical conclusion based on the factors influencing the outcome. In fact, Republicans may stand a better chance of holding their current six-seat majority in the Senate than the Democrats have of taking the majority given the shifts in voter registration toward the Republican Party that have occurred in recent years.________________________

                               Other Election Matters

                                    Posted 03/20/2026

The House of Representatives is quite the story. With a plethora of congressmen and women exiting the House, and with such a razor-thin Republican majority, it is questionable whether they will be able to hold that majority. However, that does not mean it will be impossible. After all, at this point in time even the names of candidates in certain races are unknown and will remain that way until primaries are finished. Additionally, outcomes in the House of Representatives are far more susceptible to changing economic and social conditions in the 2 - 3 months prior to election day. Still, there will be a strong effort here at Constitution Matters to keep everyone informed about the status of close races as well as the general political landscape.

A critical factor that may well influence the outcome of the 2026 mid-terms in the House of Representatives is the war with Iran. Presidents who move the U.S. into war with other nations have not fared well over the last century. If there is a chink in the armor of a Republican majority in the House, it well could be U.S. involvement in Iran, particularly if the war lasts more than a very few weeks and/or America ends up sending troops into Iran to fight a ground war. If either of those happens, it will certainly open the door for the Democrats to win the majority in the House.

One thing Constitution Matters cannot account for is election shenanigans (voter fraud). While the mainstream narrative insists that fraudulent voting is not widespread, it is a serious issue (see the Constitution Commentary on this website titled "The 2020 Election...By the Numbers). Indeed, fraudulent voting has become a major factor in election outcomes - particularly at the county and municipal levels where as little as 100 fraudulent votes could wrongly place an individual in a political office. Hopefully this will be less of a factor in 2026.

Quite often headlines will appear stating boldly that Republicans are basically conceding the 2026 mid-terms in both the House and the Senate. It is important to understand that headlines and articles like these are not news articles...they are propaganda. Republicans, who go by a different rule book than Democrats, rarely employ these kinds of tactics. The fact is that no political forecaster (left-leaning or right-leaning) is currently predicting a Democrat majority in the Senate come November. The general consensus is that Republicans will hold the majority with either 51 or 52 seats once the dust clears. Constitution Matters will monitor the Senate races closely, but right now the expectation here is that Republicans will end up with between 51 and 53 Senate seats in November 2026.

What can you expect from Constitution Matters leading into the mid-terms? Here's an example. Currently, the Real Clear Politics average for pollsters weighing the generic congressional vote shows Democrats leading Republicans 47.8% to 43.1%, giving Democrats a 4.7% advantage. However, after eliminating polls of the general public (which lack substance) and weighing other polls based on historical accuracy as well as the character of the poll sample (likely voters or registered voters), Constitution Matters has the race slightly closer with Democrats holding an estimated 2.4% lead (Democrats 47.4% - Republicans 45.0%). Of course, it is important to keep in mind that with the election nine months away, these numbers are meaningless. Far too much can happen over the coming months that could impact the election. Still, here at Constitution Matters you can expect insights like this as the election draws near.

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