Here's the Plan!

Over the past several years, there has been a clear and obvious bias in political polls leaving the public with a distorted view of public sentiment. That political bias has become even more pronounced in recent elections. Specifically, 2016 was the year that bias began to scream out from the pages of all but a few political polls. It was then exacerbated by polling aggregates like five-thirty-eight who seemed to reward the obvious bias of pollsters whose numbers ended up in the dumpster of election history while penalizing those whose polls more accurately reflected the mood of the electorate.

The goal here at Constitution Matter, at least for the year 2026, is to provide visitors with an honest analysis of political polls leading into the November mid-terms. The focus will be primarily on the U.S. House of Representatives, and the U.S. Senate seats where the outcomes may be in question. This is not a promise to accurately forecast the winner of every House and Senate race. It is, however, a pledge to pay attention to the internals of the polls to determine whether the public numbers they project are honestly derived from internal data that is available.

As America closes in on November and assorted primaries are completed, you will begin to see numbers on this page with the goal of providing honest insights into what the polls mean and what to expect this fall. Stay tuned.

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snatch the majority. However, of the 35 seats that will be decided in November, only ten seats are considered open possibilities for a shift from the incumbent party. The seats in question are Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. Of these 10 seats, 6 are currently held by Republicans and 4 by Democrats.

When the presidency is held by a political party, the vice-president becomes the president of the Senate. The vice-president does not vote on bills in the Senate except in the case of a tie vote at which time the vice-president casts the tie-breaking vote. Given this tie-breaking advantage, if the Senate has 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats, the party controlling the White House is considered the majority party. This means that, in order for Democrats to gain the majority in the Senate, they would need to hold 51 Senate seats. 

Democrats currently hold 45 Senate seats, and they have two Independent Senators who happen to caucus with and vote with Democrats. However, the Democrats have 4 seats that are questionable wins come November. That means approaching the November mid-terms, Democrats have 41 sure Senate seats. They will add to those 41 seats as they win some November races. However, since there are 10 Senate seats with questionable outcomes (6 Republican and 4 Democrat), the Democrats would need to win all 10 of those races to control the Senate. That will not happen.

As things stand right now, it appears that Democrats have opportunities to make gains in places like Maine and North Carolina - seats currently held by Republicans. On the other hand, Republicans stand a reasonable chance of making gains in places like Georgia and Michigan. Consequently, for Democrats who believe they have a remote chance to control the Senate in 2027, it is not really feasible.  That is not a partisan comment; it is simply a logical conclusion based on the factors influencing the outcome. In fact, Republicans may stand a better chance of holding their current six-seat majority in the Senate than the Democrats have of taking the majority given the shifts in voter registration toward the Republican Party that have occurred in recent years.

The House of Representatives is another story. With a plethora of congressmen and women exiting the House, and with such a razor-thin Republican majority, it is questionable whether they will be able to hold that majority.  However, that does not mean it will be impossible. After all, at this point in time even the names of candidates in certain races are unknown and will remain that way until primaries are finished. Additionally, outcomes in the House of Representatives are far more susceptible to changing economic and social conditions in the 2 - 3 months prior to election day. Still, there will be a strong effort here at Constitution Matters to keep everyone informed about the status of close races as well as the general political landscape.

A critical factor that may well influence the outcome of the 2026 mid-terms in the House of Representatives is the war with Iran. Presidents who move the U.S. into war with other nations have not fared well over the last century.  If there is a chink in the armor of a Republican majority in the House, it well could be U.S. involvement in Iran, particularly if the war lasts more than a very few weeks and/or America ends up sending troops into Iran to fight a ground war. If either of those that happens, it will certainly open the door for the Democrats to win the majority in the House.

One thing Constitution Matters cannot account for is election shenanigans (cheating). While the mainstream narrative insists that fraudulent voting is not widespread, it is a serious issue. Indeed, fraudulent voting has become a major factor in election outcomes - particularly at the county and municipal level where as little as 100 fraudulent votes could wrongly place an individual in a political office. Hopefully this will be less of a factor in 2026.

U.S. Senate Races to Watch:

Before delving too deeply, it should be noted that it is highly unlikely that Democrats will regain control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, and there are multiple reasons for this. You see, 35 Senate seats will be decided in November. Of those seats, 33 are reaching the end of their six-year terms while two constitute special elections. Also, of those 35 seats, 22 are currently held by Republicans while 13 are currently Democrat seats.

Some may quickly conclude that this makes the Republican majority in the Senate  vulnerable, providing  a  prime opportunity  for  Democrats to