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Over the past several years, there has been a clear and obvious bias in political polls leaving the public with a distorted view of public sentiment. That political bias has become even more pronounced in recent elections. Specifically, 2016 was the year that bias began to scream out from the pages of all but a few political polls. It was then exacerbated by polling aggregates like five-thirty-eight who seemed to reward the obvious bias of pollsters whose numbers ended up in the dumpster of election history while penalizing those whose polls more accurately reflected the mood of the electorate. For additional information on polls, read this website's 3-part series, Political Polls: Manufactured News - Parts 1, 2, and 3 under Constitution Commentaries in the menu at the top of the page. These articles may also be found under the Commentaries Alphabetical Listing in the menu.

The goal here at Constitution Matter, at least for the year 2026, is to provide visitors with an honest analysis of political polls leading into the November mid-terms. The focus will be primarily on the U.S. House of Representatives, and the U.S. Senate seats where the outcomes may be in question. This is not a promise to accurately forecast the winner of every House and Senate race. It is, however, a pledge to pay attention to the internals of the polls to determine whether the public numbers they project are honestly derived from internal data that is available.

As America closes in on November and assorted primaries are completed, you will begin to see numbers on this page with the goal of providing honest insights into what the polls mean and what to expect this fall. Stay tuned.

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California Governor’s Race - Posted 03/27/2026

It probably seems unthinkable to most people that a Republican could ever again step into the governorship of the state of California. However, the truth is that the office has been held by Republicans more often than one might think. Arnold Schwarzenegger (2003-2011), Pete Wilson (1991-1999), George Deukmejian (1983-1999), and Ronald Regan (1967-1975) were all Republicans. This means that Republicans held the office for 32 of the last 59 years. In fact, of the 40 California governors who have held the office since 1849, 21 were Republicans, 14 were Democrats, and 5 represented an independent party.

While history does record a number of Republican governors in California, Democrats have held the office since 2011. It is also true that California’s legislature has been dominated by the Democrat Party since 1996. Currently the California Senate consists of 30 Democrats and 10 Republicans while the Democrats have a 60-20 majority in the California House of Representatives. As a result, it may be observed that California politics and political policies have taken a substantial left turn over the last couple of decades.

In 2010, California adopted what has endearingly been labeled a jungle primary. In such a primary, voters cast votes for every candidate running for a political office. In other words, where the California governorship is concerned, every candidate from every political party is on the same primary ballot. When those ballots are counted the two candidates garnering the greatest number of votes move on to compete in the general election. It was believed at the time that this system would serve to bolster Democrat strength in the state going forward.

The coming 2026 election has seen an interesting development in California. The state’s primary will be held on June 2, 2026 and there are currently 10 gubernatorial candidates in the running. For the Democrat Party this is unfortunate since 8 of those candidates are running as Democrats. In the last few polls that have been taken in California, the 2 Republican candidates are making a strong showing while 8 Democrat candidates are splitting the Democrat votes. In fact, in the latest Berkley IGS poll taken between 3/9 and 3/15, the Republicans led all Democrat candidates. As reported by Real Clear Politics, the percentages for the top 8 candidates were as follows:

Latest Election Insights

Hilton (R) Bianco (R) Swalwell (D) Porter (D) Steyer (D) Becerra (D) Villaraigosa (D) Mahan (D)

17 16 13 13 10 5 4 4

A California VOTER Index Survey conducted by EVARITUS RESEARCH over the period of March 12-17 showed similar results. As these numbers bear out, with so many Democrats in the race for governor, if no Democrats bow out of the primary, it would not be an impossible feat for the 2 Republican candidates to receive the highest number of votes in the coming primary. In that case, only Republican candidates would appear on the ballot for the general election in November resulting in a Republican California governor – the first since 2011.

How did Democrats in California, of all places, get themselves in such a bind? A major issue is the fact that the party failed to endorse a single candidate for governor at their recent state convention, leaving the door open to any and all who wished to step through. They evidently believed that one or two strong candidates would eventually emerge and the party would unite behind those leaders. However, that has not happened.

On March 3, 2026, Rusty Hicks, the California Democrat Party Chair, wrote an Open Letter to the Democrat Candidates for Governor, urging each one to consider seriously their viability in the race. The goal was to convince the candidates to put party first. The hope was that those polling too low to have any chance of winning might step aside and allow their supporters to choose a stronger candidate. So far that strategy has not worked.

Given the left-leaning nature of California voters, it is possible that a Democrat candidate could receive a large number of votes in the general election as a write-in candidate. However, that person’s odds of winning in the general election would be slim since it is likely that even write-in votes would be split among the numerous Democrat candidates.

It is probably a safe bet that, should a Democrat be among the top two vote-getters in the primary, the Democrat would win in the general election. After all, Californians generally vote heavily Democrat. Then again, it could be there is a good reason no Democrat candidate is currently able to close the deal. Perhaps the people of California have felt the weight of Democrat policies and are looking for a change. With the jungle primary just two months away, it will be interesting to see if the Republican candidates can, indeed, come out on top.

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