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Paxton v. Cornyn - The Power of MAGA

Posted 05/23/2026

The Republican runoff for the U.S. Senate race in Texas takes place on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. On Tuesday, May 19th, one week before the runoff, President Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. The endorsement is significant since, so far during the primary season, Donald Trump is 37-0 where endorsements are concerned. Still, it is likely Paxton would have prevailed without the endorsement. However, once the endorsement was given, John Cornyn pretty much packed up his campaign and closed shop.

John Thune, majority leader of the Senate, was not pleased with Trump’s endorsement of Paxton for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that Cornyn is his close friend and they have worked together in the Senate for more than two decades. However, Thune had other reasons to be disappointed. First of all, Thune and Cornyn are like-minded where politics is concerned. This is especially true when it comes to the U.S. Senate. For instance, both believe in procedure over substance and orthodoxy over accomplishment. This has been made evident most recently where the SAVE Act is concerned as Thune has proven ineffectual in getting the proposal through the Senate.

The SAVE Act, which is a Trump priority in that it would provide greater security during American elections, has been stalled in the Senate for months. In fact, is seems more accurate to say that it is an American priority since it is supported by the vast majority of citizens – Republican and Democrat alike. However, Democrats in the Senate, along with certain Republicans like Thune and Cornyn, are not in favor. The Democrat position is understandable given their affinity for illegal aliens. Yet, the fact that certain Republicans oppose the bill is precarious. While Cornyn did make a feeble attempt at supporting the measure in a ploy to secure the Senate nomination, his effort was too little too late.

John Thune and John Cornyn are what are known colloquially as RINO’s (Republicans In Name Only). While they wear the Republican moniker, they tend to think and act more like moderate Democrats. It was surprising, then, when President Trump endorsed Thune for majority leader over Rick Scott from Florida in 2025. Evidently the president believed he could influence Thune’s decision-making.

A second reason for Thune’s disappointment is that, unlike his friend John Cornyn, Ken Paxton is a firm supporter of Donald Trump. Consequently, he is not on the same page with Thune where Senate politics is concerned. It might be more accurate to say that Paxton is a MAGA candidate. In fact, Paxton joins a number of other MAGA candidates that seem to be cleaning up in primaries this year. The Republican Party appears to have had its fill of RINO’s and they are being weeded out systematically, making Thune’s attempt at appeasing both Senate Republicans and Democrats even more difficult. The pressure will be on Thune to meet MAGA’s demands.

Trump’s endorsement of Paxton could be seen as a shot across the bow for John Thune. While Thune has two years left in his current term as senator, he may find himself fighting a strong MAGA headwind in 2028, and MAGA has become a formidable political force. Additionally, Trump may be signaling to Thune that his leadership role in the Senate is in jeopardy. Assuming MAGA candidates win Senate seats in the coming election, if Trump wants Thune out, he will be out.

It is highly likely that Ken Paxton would have won the runoff on Tuesday even without Trump’s endorsement. He endeared himself to Texas Republicans when, back in March, he offered to sacrifice his candidacy on the altar of the SAVE Act. He vowed to bow out of the race if the Senate would pass this piece of legislature. Putting the country before his own ambitions is unheard of in politics today, and it was easy to see in subsequent polling that the people appreciated the selflessness.

For those who wonder whether Paxton can win the Senate seat in Texas against a smooth-talking, charismatic Democrat like James Talarico, only time will tell and that time will come in November. The last time Texas elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate was 1988 when Lloyd Benson, who first won the seat in 1970, was re-elected. The last time Texas sent a non-incumbent Democrat to the Senate was 1993. At that time, Robert Krueger was appointed (not elected) by the governor to fill a Texas vacancy left by Lloyd Bentsen’s resignation. However, Krueger was what might be considered a very conservative Democrat. In today’s politics, he might even be considered a moderate Republican given the positions the two parties have taken on assorted issues. Still, it has been 56 years since Texas elected a non-incumbent Democrat (Bentsen) to the U.S. Senate.

Every time a seemingly charismatic Democrat runs for the position of U.S. Senator in Texas, Democrats get excited. This was true of Paul Sadler in 2012, Beto O’Rouke in 2018, and now James Talarico. Could this be the one? Will Texas elect a Democrat Senator? Will Texas finally become a blue state? Yet, none of these Democrat candidates prevailed. Still, in 2026 among Democrat movers and shakers, hopes and expectations run high.

That having been said, Democrats insist that they have a chance against Paxton who, they claim, has some serious baggage. He has been charged with assorted indiscretions and the Texas legislature even sought his impeachment. Paxton supporters will argue, however, that those allegations, as well as the movement to impeach, were purely politically motivated, and there is a strong argument to be made.

While Paxton may encounter some headwinds, Talarico may well be facing a political hurricane in his run for the Senate. His views are seriously out of step with the general Texas citizenry. His political positions are heavily progressive (and may be considered woke) and his assorted controversial statements concerning God, sex, abortion, etc., will undoubtedly haunt him in a Texas general election. Consequently, for those Democrats who have high hopes to take a Texas Senate seat from Republicans in 2026, this would not be a good year to go to Vegas and place any bets.

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Here's the Plan for 2026!

Over the past several years, there has been a clear and obvious bias in political polls leaving the public with a distorted view of public sentiment. That political bias has become even more pronounced in recent elections. Specifically, 2016 was the year that bias began to scream out from the pages of all but a few political polls. It was then exacerbated by polling aggregates like five-thirty-eight who seemed to reward the obvious bias of pollsters whose numbers ended up in the dumpster of election history while penalizing those whose polls more accurately reflected the mood of the electorate. For additional information on polls, read this website's 3-part series, Political Polls: Manufactured News - Parts 1, 2, and 3 under Constitution Commentaries in the menu at the top of the page. These articles may also be found under the Commentaries Alphabetical Listing in the menu.

The goal here at Constitution Matter, at least for the year 2026, is to provide visitors with an honest analysis of political polls leading into the November mid-terms. The focus will be primarily on the U.S. House of Representatives, and the U.S. Senate seats where the outcomes may be in question. This is not a promise to accurately forecast the winner of every House and Senate race. It is, however, a pledge to pay attention to the internals of the polls to determine whether the public numbers they project are honestly derived from internal data that is available.

As America closes in on November and assorted primaries are completed, you will begin to see numbers on this page with the goal of providing honest insights into what the polls mean and what to expect this fall. Stay tuned.

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