Democrat
Peltola
Ossoff*
Turek
Jackson
El-Sayed
Pappas
Cooper
Brown
Talarico
Republican
Sullivan*
Collins
Hinson
Collins*
Rogers
Sununu
Whatley
Husted*
Paxton
Margin
R +1%
D +4%
R +4%
R +2%
R +3% (Flip)
D +2%
D +4% (Flip)
R +2%
R +4%
State
Alaska (R)
Georgia (D)
Iowa (R)
Maine (R)
Michigan (D)
New Hampshire (D)
North Carolina (R)
Ohio (R)
Texas (R)
The Georgia Senate Race - Collins v. Ossoff
The Georgia U.S. Senate race pits Mike Collins, a Republican, against Jon Ossoff, the Democrat. In this case, Ossoff has the advantage of incumbency and it looks like that advantage may pay off. Currently, the RCP average shows Ossoff leading by 7.8% and Polymarket gives Ossoff a 94% chance of winning in November. Given the lack of recent polling, no 30-day insights are available.
Certain Republicans have voiced optimism, suggesting that Collins has a chance to win this seat. That optimism is based partly on the expectation that the Republican Party could spend significantly more money on this race than the Democrat Party. Still, polling has been consistent in Ossoff's favor over the past several months, so Collins would need to dig out of a very deep hole to have any chance of winning.
The New Hampshire Senate Race - Pappas v. Sununu
The retirement of current New Hampshire Senatore Jeanne Shaheen has resulted in a race for this New Hampshire Senate seat without an incumbent. Hence, there is no incumbency advantage. The New Hampshire primary resulted in the Republican candidate, John Sununu facing off against Democrat Chris Pappas.
The North Carolina Senate Race - Cooper v. Whatley
Roy Cooper Michael Whatley.
November Estimates
The nine Senate races listed below are considered by most to be competitive. There have been no changes from the previous week's estimates. Assuming the following outcomes are realized, Republicans would end up with a 53-47 Senate majority, which is the same majority held by Republicans in the current Senate. In the following chart, the asterisk next to an individual's name indicates the incumbent in the race, but several races listed here have open seats (no incumbent) due to retirement, primary loss, death, etc. Also, the D or R next to the state name indicates which party currently holds that seat.
This should not be considered an attempt to predict the exact outcome of the November elections, but should be seen as a depiction of the political landscape as a whole. In that vein, at this point in time the chart should be read with +/-1 senatorial seat in view for each political party. Given the following numbers, this means it is currently likely that Republicans will end up with 52 - 54 seats in the Senate while Democrats can expect to realize 46 - 48 seats.
Election 2026 Insights: September 21, 2026
The U.S. Senate
Party No. of Seats
Republicans
Democrats
53
47
Election 2026 Insights: September 21, 2026
The U.S. House of Representatives
There has been some leftward movement in the Generic Congressional Ballot polls this week. For instance, the RCP average for the generic congressional ballot jumped from a Democrat lead of 6.6 points last week to a Democrat advantage of 8.1 this week. Additionally, all included polls fall within the 4-point margin of error and within the last 30 days. That having been said, a couple of polls need to be omitted based on historical trends.
The average includes a poll from Quinnipiac gives Democrats an 11 point lead while another poll, Economist/YouGov, shows a 12-point lead for Democrats. Why should these polls be omitted? It is because they have an historical tendency to overstate the Democrat position. In mid-September 2024, Economist/YouGov polled a 4-point lead for Democrats while the final actual number was Republicans by 2.7 points. In 2022 it was a similar story with Economist/YouGov showing Democrats with a 5-point lead in mid-September while the actual final number was Republicans by 2.8 points. While no recent mid-September numbers are available from Quinnipiac, in 2018 Quinnipiac showed a Democrat lead of 14 points, but the actual final tally was Democrats by 8.4.
On each of these occasions, the numbers for Quinnipiac and Economist/YouGov were considerably off compared to other pollsters, making their current numbers dubious. Consequently, while their numbers are not technically outside the margin of error, their inconsistency makes them suspect. Therefore, for the time being, those numbers will be ignored. When these polls are reasonably removed from consideration, the RCP average is adjusted to a Democrat lead of 7.4%.
No current polls offer any insight into how the Republican Convention might impact congressional races since all included polls pre-date the convention. With the Iran conflict still in full swing and gas prices climbing to recent highs, the convention may have little or no influence on the outcome of the election. Polls that are included reflect solid directional movement and impact the current outlook where November 3rd is concerned. While it is still impossible to predict which party will control the House of Representative in 2027, Democrats will be encouraged by the slight shift in the estimate given below. Last week showed Republicans with a range of 216-220 and Democrats with a range of 215-219, suggesting that Republicans enjoyed a slight edge. This week those numbers are reversed.
Party No. of Seats
Republicans
Democrats
215-219
216-220
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