Democrat

Peltola

Ossoff*

Turek

Jackson

El-Sayed

Flanagan

Pappas

Cooper

Brown

Talarico

Republican

Sullivan*

Collins

Hinson

Collins*

Rogers

Tafoya

Sununu

Whatley

Husted*

Paxton

Margin

R +3%

D +4%

R +5%

R +3%

R +3% (Flip)

D +1%

D +2%

D +5% (Flip)

R +5%

R +5%

State

Alaska (R)

Georgia (D)

Iowa (R)

Maine (R)

Michigan (D)

Minnesota (D)

New Hampshire (D)

North Carolina (R)

Ohio (R)

Texas (R)

The U.S. Senate

Here we are with the final election write-up prior to election day. Normally the approach is to highlight some Senate races to see how they are shaping up Today we will give a slight overview without digging too deeply into the individual races. For instance, from the beginning of September, it has been the position here at Election Insights that the final tally in the Senate would likely be Republicans, 53 seats and Democrats, 47 seats. Those numbers remain unchanged. Of course, the Senate could end up R-52, D-48 or R-54, D-46. It primarily depends on what happens in Maine, Michigan, and Minnesota. Still, R-53/D-47 seems the most likely outcome.               

It appears that Mary Peltola's shenanigans in Alaska have backfired. Even members of her own party have begun to distance themselves. Here at Election Insights, Alaska has always been listed as a Republican win. However, it could be that Dan Sullivan's win there could be more decisive than anticipated.

Kansas has not really been on the radar here at Election Insights until the media got involved over the past week. It has been suggested by the polls that the Kansas Senate race between Republican Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton has tightened to the point where the outcome might be in question. The truth is that this is merely a ploy by the media to inject excitement into the 2026 election. This race will not be close enough to warrant those kind of headlines as Republicans already lead in the early/mail-in vote and will likely outpace Democrats on November 3rd by double digits.  

Texas has been discussed at length over the past weeks. While Texas does not track by party registration, early voting indicates that those counties best-known as Republican strongholds are casting ballots in numbers Democrats will never be able to match in the few counties that lean slightly blue. Similarly, Republicans look to carry the Senate seats in Iowa and Ohio, giving them enough seats to hold the majority in the upper chamber.

Some have questioned whether Susan Collins might lose to Troy Jackson, particularly since he has been leading in the polls. However, Susan Collins has a history of resilience and a tendency to dominate the ballot box on election day by massive margins. Less than half the anticipated votes have been received thus far.

Democrats can still plan on holding Senate seats in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota. While Minnesota might be closer than Democrats would like, it would be very difficult for Republicans to pull off a win there. Should that happen, it would be a surprise even here at Election Insights. Additionally, Democrats can expect to flip the Senate seat in North Carolina handily.

November Estimates

There is no change this week in the estimated number of Senate seats that each party is expected to win. Republicans should end up with a 53-47 Senate majority, which is the same majority held by Republicans in the current Senate. There has, however, been some slight changes in some of the margins (see below)

In the following chart, the asterisk next to an individual's name indicates the incumbent in the race, but several races listed here have open seats (no incumbent) due to retirement, primary loss, death, etc. Also, the D or R next to the state name indicates which party currently holds that seat.

This should not be considered an attempt to predict the exact outcome of the November elections, but should be seen as a depiction of the political landscape as a whole. In that vein, at this point in time the chart should be read with +/-1 senatorial seat in view for each political party. Given the following numbers, this means it is currently likely that Republicans will end up with 52 - 54 seats in the Senate while Democrats can expect to realize 46 - 48 seats. Additionally, margins should be considered as mere estimates with +/-1 point in view. For instance, in North Carolina's race, Cooper's leads of 4% suggests that he should win by between 3% and 5%. 

Election 2026 Insights: November 2, 2026

The U.S. Senate

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

53

47

Change

+1%

+1%

+1%

+1%

+2%