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Welcome to Election 2026

Welcome to Election Insights here at constitutionmatters.net. Scrolling down this page will allow you to gain some insights into where certain political races currently stand and what you might expect to see in the coming election on November 3, 2026.

You will find that election information on this site differs from what you might find on other sites. Aggregation sites often bore readers with details about the models and weighting of assorted political polls that have been plugged into prefabricated algorithms. In truth, their weighting is often politically biased, which is why results often miss the mark dramatically. Here you will find what you are really seeking, which is plain talk about what to expect in the coming election. At constitutionmatters.net, the goal is to offer you, the reader, straightforward insights into political polls and their potential meaning.

There is no presidential race this year, which affects the character of the election, at least to a degree. In 2026, we find three components of the election that will impact the electorate on a national scale. These include races for state governorships, seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, and seats in the U.S. Senate. However, since governorships are less impactful on a national level, we will not spend much time following those races. While we may touch on interesting gubernatorial races as we close in on election day, the primary focus here will be on races in the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. This page will be updated weekly (each Monday) through November 2, 2026, but previous weeks' results will remain posted on this page so readers can track changes and trends.

Democrat

Peltola

Ossoff*

Turek

Jackson

El-Sayed

Pappas

Cooper

Brown

Talarico

Republican

Sullivan*

Collins

Hinson

Collins*

Rogers

Sununu

Whatley

Husted*

Paxton

Margin

R +1%

D +4%

R +4%

R +2%

R +3% (Flip)

D +2%

D +4% (Flip)

R +2%

R +4%

State

Alaska (R)

Georgia (D)

Iowa (R)

Maine (R)

Michigan (D)

New Hampshire (D)

North Carolina (R)

Ohio (R)

Texas (R)

Michigan Senate Race - El-Sayed v. Rogers

Over the last week, not much has occurred to impact the outlook in the Senate for the upcoming election. It could be said that Mike Rogers in Michigan has gained some strength only because Abdul El-Sayed's campaign has hit some serious snags. This especially includes Black and Jewish voters who have taken issue with some of El-Sayed's comments along with certain positions he has taken and questionable relationships he has developed. He has purportedly apologized for his seemingly offensive remarks. Whether that apology moves the needle at all remains to be seen. Still, the race remains tight with Rogers arguably holding a slight edge.

Texas Senate Race - Talarico v. Paxton

Talarico's Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling lead in Texas has increased slightly from 1.9% to 2.4% bolstered by a single poll that appears to be an outlier and, as a result, Polymarket shows his odds of winning that Senate seat at 51%. Other recent polls show either a tie or Paxton with a 1 point advantage. However, the Paxton campaign has only just begun to spend money on ads and there are certain factors to consider in this race. 1) The polls are undoubtedly overstating Talarico's standing in the race - probably by at least 3-4 points, 2) Talarico's political views do not align with most Texans, and 3) Paxton has already won multiple statewide elections in Texas. While Talarico has raised considerable dollars, Paxton got a very late start in fundraising due to a challenging primary, including a runoff election. Over the next couple of weeks money from various sources will be pouring into the campaign and Paxton has an ad message that will resonate with voters because his positions align with Texas voters.

It remains highly unlikely that Talarico, whose political positions stand in stark contrast with the political views of the vast majority of Texans, will win a statewide election there. This is a man who, in 2020, targeted white supremacy and the Texas oil industry, linking both to climate change, and with a vision of ending both. In addition, it has been suggested, and for good reasons, that Talarico may have some difficulty getting Jasmine Crockett supporters to actually show up and vote this election cycle as there appears to be a bitter after-taste with Crockett's supporters left over from the primary. Paxton may have some issues of his own but, in a place like Texas, they pale in comparison.

There are a couple other factors to consider in the Texas Senate race. First, the upcoming Republican mid-term convention, which will be held in Dallas, will bring attention to the race and undoubtedly give Paxton a boost in the polls, more accurately reflecting the mood of the Texas electorate. Second, while Democrats hold a 6.4% edge nationally on the Generic Congressional Ballot, in the state of Texas, Republicans have a 2.8% edge on that ballot. That's a difference of 9.2% in favor of Republicans. Consequently, while Talarico currently leads in the RCP average, it seems reasonable to believe that the race is Paxton's to lose.

The Alaska Senate Race - Peltola v. Sullivan v. Sullivan v. Heikes

One race that involves some unusual twists is the Alaska Senate Race. The Republican Party actually has three candidates on the November ballot with two of those candidates sharing the same name. One is the incumbent Dan S. Sullivan while the other is a late-entry candidate by the name of Dan J. Sullivan. Carol Beecher, the Alaska Division of Elections Director, sought to remove the second Dan Sullivan based on a "preponderance of evidence" that he was part of a Democrat plot to confuse voters and boost Peltola, a Democrat, into the Senate seat. However, the Alaska Supreme Court overruled Beecher, leaving two Dan Sullivans on the Republican side of the November ballot.

Making things worse for the Republicans, the fourth-place finisher in the primary was a Democrat by the name of David Leslie. After the primary, Leslie dropped out of the race moving the fifth-place finisher, a Republican by the name of Gerald Heikes, onto the November ballot in his place. Consequently, rather than two Democrats and two Republicans appearing on the ballot, there will be one Democrat and three Republicans, two of whom share the same name.

There seems little doubt that the late entry of a second Dan Sullivan involves some political chicanery, but there is nothing that can be done about that at this point. However, this ballot maneuvering, coupled with Alaska's system of ranked-choice voting, serves up a real challenge for the incumbent Dan S. Sullivan. It is a challenge that may be difficult for him to overcome. For now, the race remains tight with the incumbent having the slightest advantage. Mary Peltola, the sole Democrat on the ballot, currently holds a 2-point edge in the RCP average and Polymarket gives her a 64% chance of winning. We'll need to keep an eye on this one over the coming weeks as it has a chance to be a flip for the Democrat Party.

The Maine Senate Race - Jackson v. Collins

If nothing else, the storyline surrounding the 2026 Senate race in Maine has been colorful. Not surprisingly, Susan Collins, the Republican incumbent, is the Republican candidate. She was unopposed on the Republican ticket, so the fact that she is the candidate is no surprise. However, it is the Democrat side of the aisle that has provided entertainment for political junkies.

Four Democrats participated in the primary seeking to challenge Susan Collins for her Senate seat. Of those candidates, Graham Platner won the day with 72.1% of the votes. What made this interesting was that Platner actually wore a tattoo of a Nazi symbol on his chest. One would think that, having venomously accused Republicans of being Nazis/Fascists for the last 65 years, Democrats would have balked at allowing someone like Platner to run for Senate on a Democrat ticket, but they did not. Evidently, being a Democrat Nazi is acceptable. While Platner denied supporting fascism, the tattoo did not serve him well.

While the Democrats were willing to overlook the tattoo, things went awry for Platner when certain Democrat women began to accuse him of inappropriate sexual behavior - including rape. At that point, Platner began to feel the political pressure and chose to unwind his candidacy. Of course, this left the Democrats with no candidate to face Susan Collins in November, leaving Republicans with an automatic win.

When Platner bowed out of the race, the Democrat Party held a mini convention to select his replacement. The race was between Saundra Pelletier, CEO of Evofem Biosciences, Inc., and Troy Jackson, a former logger who was part of the Maine legislature as a Representative and a Senator beginning in 2000. Democrats met in Bangor on July 25th to choose their candidate. Out of nearly 600 delegates, Jackson received 566 votes and became Platner's replacement in the Maine Senate race.

Amazingly, Jackson instantly skyrocketed to the forefront in polls. The RCP average shows Jackson leading Susan Collins by 2.3 points and Polymarket currently gives him a 70% chance of winning the race. The number is likely inflated simply because he is the new kid on the block. However, like pretty much all politicians, Troy Jackson evidently has some skeletons in the closet, and Susan Collins is beginning to run ads concerning Jackson's fathering of children with his second cousin. 

Jackson apparently also has a slight temper. In 2021, as President of the Maine Senate, Jackson became overly frustrated during a discussion with his Democrat colleagues. In his anger, Jackson threw a water bottle. He insists that the bottle was not aimed as anyone in particular. However, a female Democrat believed it was aimed at her and was evidently so frightened by the incident that she chose not to run for office in the next election. We can only guess how these issues might impact this year's election.

On the other side of the coin, Susan Collins has been a Senator in Maine since 1997, and she pretty much always outperforms the polls. In 2020 she ended up winning the race, beating her poll numbers by nearly 9 points, and in 2026 she is currently outperforming her 2020 polls. While some insist that Susan Collins is in trouble with Maine voters in response to her support of Bret Kavanaugh for Supreme Court Justice, that dissatisfaction is not showing in the polls and she won the seat in 2020, two years after the Kavanaugh vote.

These things having been said, it is far more likely that Collins, rather than Jackson, will win the Maine Senate seat. She is a known commodity in Maine politics and, while Jacskon served in the Maine legislature for several years, Collins' incumbency offers a powerful advantage come November when she will likely outperform the polls by a half dozen points or more.

November Estimates

In this week's chart, there have been no changes from the previous week's estimates. Assuming the following outcomes are realized, Republicans would end up with a 53-47 Senate majority, which is the same majority held by Republicans in the current Senate. In the following chart, the asterisk next to an individual's name indicates the incumbent in the race, but several races listed here have open seats (no incumbent) due to retirement, primary loss, death, etc. Also, the D or R next to the state name indicates which party currently holds that seat.

This should not be considered an attempt to predict the exact outcome of the November elections, but should be seen as a depiction of the political landscape as a whole. In that vein, at this point in time the chart should be read with +/-1 senatorial seat in view for each political party. Given the following numbers, this means it is currently likely that Republicans will end up with 52 - 54 seats in the Senate while Democrats can expect to realize 46 - 48 seats.

Election 2026 Insights: September 7, 2026

The U.S. Senate

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

53

47

Election 2026 Insights: September 7, 2026

The U.S. House of Representatives

This has been a fascinating week in the race for the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Some curious events occurred this week that may well impact Democrat hopes/chances of winning that majority in November. Some were self-inflicted wounds within the party while others came from outside sources. It will be interesting to watch the Democrat Party over the next month as we track how some of these things play out.

On Tuesday, September 1, 2026, the headline "Two House Democrats Vote to Salvage GOP Agenda" appeared on politico.com. In a vote on House rules, which impacts what bills get debated on the House floor, Democrat Representatives Jared Golden of Maine and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington broke with the rest of the House Democrats by voting with Republicans. The pair evidently made their decisions believing a favorable vote was the best way they could represent their constituents. Specifically, Golden wanted a bill he introduced concerning the Lobster industry to be open to debate on the House floor and Gluesenkamp Perez was simply supporting Golden's efforts.

One would think, in a normal world, that these two Democrats would be respected for their decision to step up and put constituents before party politics, but the world inside the U.S. legislature is far from normal. The Democrat leadership in the chamber viewed their actions as unacceptable. In fact, it appears that these two representatives may well face disciplinary action for what is seen as a betrayal of their party. Minority leader Hakeen Jefferies commented concerning the crossover vote, "It is an action that necessitates a serious response." It is difficult to say how something like this might impact the mid-terms, but it is fair to say that it is not a good look just prior to an election for two politicians to be scolded and/or disciplined by their leadership for putting their constituents' interests ahead of party loyalty.

Another interesting element of this situation is that the above resolution on which Golden and Gluesenkamp Perez voted with Republicans also included a statement condemning socialism. The means that these two Democrat members of the House voted in favor of condemning socialism while the rest of the Democrat Party refused to support that statement.

As if two Democrats breaking with the party is not bad enough, what if 33 Democrats went rogue? Well, that is exactly what happened. Hakeem Jeffries could not rein in Democrats last week on a bill that sought to counter antisemitism on college campuses by blocking federal funding for schools seeking to boycott Israel. While passage of the bill may seem like a no-brainer for most Americans, the steady rise of antisemitism among those on the far left is an issue and this public display of division within the ranks is a problem Jefferies was hoping to avoid.

These legislative incidents reveal some real fractures in the Democrat Party and, if the Democrats plan to take a majority in the House of Representatives, they must be able to put on a united front. However, especially given the schism between the left and what might be considered the far-left Democratic Socialists, coming together could be difficult.

While the above incidents are clearly self-inflicted wounds within the Democrat Party, something else occurred this week that is eye-opening. Last week on this page it was suggested that the Democrat advantage in the Generic Congressional Ballot would likely begin to dissipate and, as was noted at the time, polls from the last 30 days supported that hypothesis. That was an interesting point, but it was still not indicative of a dramatic shift in the numbers.

This week Harvard-Harris, one of the most accurate pollsters in recent elections, submitted their latest numbers on the Generic Congressional Ballot, and the results were astounding. Harvard-Harris showed Republicans leading by 2 points in that poll. A couple polls came in afterward showing Democrats with the lead. Following the numbers, one week ago the RCP average for the Generic Congressional Ballot gave Democrats a lead of 6.7 points. However, when considering only polls from the last 30 days, the Democrat lead dropped to 5.67 points. Now that overall Democrat lead has fallen from 6.7 to 5.8 points while the 30-day lead has risen from 5.67 to 5.8 points.

Of course, this is a very narrow window, and it would be a fool's errand to draw big-picture conclusions in early September. We could see polls over the next week that reverse the current trend to some degree. In fact, that seems likely to happen. Still, the numbers are not irrelevant and will be well worth watching as we close in on November 3rd.

Despite the above-mentioned Democrat challenges, it is still too early to make any serious determination as to which party might take the majority in the House, and it may be a few weeks before that picture begins to unfold. Consequently, the following numbers are unchanged from last week.

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

216-220

215-219

September 1, 2026

U.S. Senate Outlook

State

Alaska (R)

Georgia (D)

Iowa (R)

Maine (R)

Michigan (D)

New Hampshire (D)

North Carolina (R)

Ohio (R)

Texas (R)

Democrat

Peltola

Ossoff*

Turek

Jackson

El-Sayed

Pappas

Cooper

Brown

Talarico

Republican

Sullivan*

Collins

Hinson

Collins*

Rogers

Sununu

Whatley

Husted*

Paxton

Margin

R +1%

D +4%

R +4%

R +2%

R +3% (Flip)

D +2%

D +4% (Flip)

R +2%

R +4%

U.S. House of Representatives Outlook

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

216-220

215-219

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

47

53

Here's the Plan for 2026!

Over the past several years, there has been a clear and obvious bias in political polls leaving the public with a distorted view of public sentiment. That political bias has become even more pronounced in recent elections. Specifically, 2016 was the year that bias began to scream out from the pages of all but a few political polls. It was then exacerbated by polling aggregates like five-thirty-eight who seemed to reward the obvious bias of pollsters whose numbers ended up in the dumpster of election history while penalizing those whose polls more accurately reflected the mood of the electorate. For additional information on polls, read this website's 3-part series, Political Polls: Manufactured News - Parts 1, 2, and 3 under Constitution Commentaries in the menu at the top of the page. These articles may also be found under the Commentaries Alphabetical Listing in the menu.

The goal here at Constitution Matters, at least for the year 2026, is to provide visitors with an honest analysis of political polls leading into the November mid-terms. The focus will be primarily on the U.S. House of Representatives, and the U.S. Senate seats where the outcomes may be in question. This is not a promise to accurately forecast the winner of every House and Senate race. It is, however, a pledge to pay attention to the internals of the polls to determine whether the public numbers they project are honestly derived from internal data that is available.

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