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Speculating on the 2028 Presidential Election

Posted 7/30/2026

It may seem a bit early to be looking forward to the 2028 presidential election, but the truth is politics never sleeps. While 2028 is two years away, it is safe to say that Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, the Green Party, and, dare I say, Democratic Socialists, are already well into developing their plans for 2028. In fact, hardly a day goes by without an announcement about what candidates lead the 2028 pack. For instance, Zogby, considered a rather reliable pollster, shows former Vice President Kamala Harris not only leading all other potential Democrat candidates, but also leading the more popular Republican candidates.

While Zogby may be a reliable pollster, at this point in time those polls are absolutely meaningless. How can we know the impotence of such polls? Well, just a few months ago (February and March) Governor Gavin Newsome of California was killing it in the polls. That’s no longer the case. In fact, just a week ago, the main stream media was going crazy over a recent New Hampshire poll that showed Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York the leading Democrat.

Who else might be interested in taking a shot at the Democrat nomination? Pete Buttigieg, former transportation secretary under Joe Biden, J. B. Pritzker, governor of Illinois, Rahm Emanuel, former Chicago mayor, Josh Shapiro, governor of Pennsylvania, and other names have been tossed about. While Zohran Mandami, the Democratic Socialist Mayor of New York clearly has national ambitions, he is ineligible for the presidency since he was not born on American soil. However, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez who has already been mentioned and has political positions similar to Mamdani, might actually consider running.

Where Republicans are concerned, Vice President J. D. Vance has pretty much been out in front in the polls since he took on the title of vice president in early 2025. That is certainly not uncommon. It is politically natural and expedient for a vice president to take up the reins when a president finishes his final term. On the other hand, many are impressed with the way Marco Rubio has handled his responsibilities as Secretary of State, and he has consistently held second place in polls on the Republican side of the aisle, though he has recently stated that he does not plan to enter the race. For those who wonder, it is probably safe to say that Donald Trump, Jr. will not be running for the presidency in 2028 despite speculation and the fact that his name appears in many polls.

Some commentators have suggested that a Vance-Rubio ticket might be difficult for Democrats to beat, but I am not yet fully convinced that Rubio will not run for the top spot. It is difficult to say who else on the Republican side might throw their hat into the ring. Might DeSantis, Cruz, or Ramaswamy jump in? It is possible, but it will likely depend on what polls show in late 2027. For Ramaswamy, it may well depend on how his bid for Ohio governor turns out this fall.

There has even been speculation that Tucker Carlson might be interested, although he seems to have soured on the Republican Party, so it is more likely that he would run as an independent if at all. Still, at this point it is too early to determine the likelihood, particularly since he has not suggested that he would run and his polling numbers have been extremely poor. Perhaps the most likely person to join the race would be Nikki Haley, who has demonstrated interest in the office for years. Still, she is a long shot and history suggests she would have difficulty winning the nomination. Of course, it is always possible that a new unforeseen face could surface and join the race.

These things having been said, the real question is which party is most likely to prevail in 2028 where the presidency is concerned. While it is speculative this early in the game, it seems safe to suggest that the next president of the United States will be a Republican. This is true for a couple of reasons. First, the Democrat Party has a very weak bench. After all, Kamala Harris has already lost a run for that office and Newsome likely does not have a strong enough campaign or record to survive the next two years. Additionally, men like Pritzker and Emmanuel have little to offer. Shapiro is perhaps the most appealing Democrat on paper but, while not impossible, as a Jew it would be very difficult for him to win on a Democrat ticket at the national level given the anti-Semitic sentiment that is so prevalent in today's Democrat Party.

Of course, the primary reason I see a Republican taking the White House in 2028 is the unprecedented split in the Democrat Party. The rise of Democratic Socialism seems to be splitting the party so dramatically that the Democrat Party, as we know it, may not survive. These kinds of splits creep up occasionally, but they are generally short-lived. However, that does not appear to be the case with Democratic Socialism. In fact, this faction seems to be digging in its heels. This movement, with popular voices like Representative Ocasio-Cortez and Mayor Zohran Mamdani of New York to push the platform, may even gain strength before 2028.

The split in the Democrat Party may be too difficult to overcome given that up to one-third of the party seems to be leaning further and further to the left. If someone like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez were to have a good showing in the primary process but fail to secure the nomination, it may well be that more than a few of her supporters would see the Democrat Party as too weak and a new party could be born. This would tear the Democrat Party in two and they may well have difficulty winning the presidency in the foreseeable future.

While the Democrat Party is experiencing a serious rift, the Republican Party is displaying a rather united front. Yes, there are a few Republican Senators who have been a disappointment, but the indication is that upwards of 90% of the Republican Party is unified behind Donald Trump's presidency and the MAGA movement. This bodes well for the party not only when it comes to 2028, but also for the upcoming 2026 mid-terms.

Another reason a Republican is likely to win the White House in 2028 is the organizational strength of the Republican Party, with far superior numbers where new party identification is concerned. This, weighed against the highly unpopular positions Democrats have taken on a number of issues, bodes well for the Republican Party. Over the past few years, Republicans have been gaining new voters at break-neck speed while Democrats have been bleeding registrants. This is due in part to the work of men like Scott Pressler, a conservative activist who has worked diligently to grow Republican registrations. The unpopularity of Democrat political positions on a litany of issues has only made Scott's job easier.

One final factor hurting the Democrat Party is the SAVE Act. While it is true that this voter integrity measure has not yet passed the Senate, with a large majority of voters in favor and President Trump’s heavy-handed support, I anticipate that it will. It may not happen in time for the 2026 mid-terms, but it will likely impact 2028. Senators Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Chuck Schumer of New York have both acknowledged that passage of the SAVE Act could potentially destroy the Democrat Party. Senator Slotkin recently stated that passage of the SAVE Act would make it “…hard for any Democrat in any state to win an election” and Senator Schumer admitted that the legislation would remove “more than 20 million people” from the voter rolls. Both believe those would be 20 million Democrat votes. That means Democrats would likely lose one-fourth of their voting base should the SAVE Act pass the Senate. This doesn’t even take into consideration the votes the party might lose to Democratic Socialism.

The combination of 1) the rise of Democratic Socialism, 2) the likelihood of the eventual passage of the SAVE Act, and 3) the heavy tilt of voter registrations toward the Republican Party over the past several years could leave the Democrat Party floundering. Indeed, Democrats may well be looking at dissolution and attempting to form a new political movement altogether consisting of a combination of Democrats and Democratic Socialists. Indeed, this may be their only choice. Make no mistake, this would be a hard-left leaning movement with a bent toward transforming America into a socialist/communist nation. In fact, Democratic Socialists have already begun developing their own manifesto for America.

The next race for president is obviously too far off to make solid predictions and much can happen over the next two years. In politics, a month can seem like a lifetime while a year is more like an eternity. Still, at the end of the day and with an eye on 2028, I would rather be a Republican than a Democrat at this point in time.

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Here's the Plan for 2026!

Over the past several years, there has been a clear and obvious bias in political polls leaving the public with a distorted view of public sentiment. That political bias has become even more pronounced in recent elections. Specifically, 2016 was the year that bias began to scream out from the pages of all but a few political polls. It was then exacerbated by polling aggregates like five-thirty-eight who seemed to reward the obvious bias of pollsters whose numbers ended up in the dumpster of election history while penalizing those whose polls more accurately reflected the mood of the electorate. For additional information on polls, read this website's 3-part series, Political Polls: Manufactured News - Parts 1, 2, and 3 under Constitution Commentaries in the menu at the top of the page. These articles may also be found under the Commentaries Alphabetical Listing in the menu.

The goal here at Constitution Matter, at least for the year 2026, is to provide visitors with an honest analysis of political polls leading into the November mid-terms. The focus will be primarily on the U.S. House of Representatives, and the U.S. Senate seats where the outcomes may be in question. This is not a promise to accurately forecast the winner of every House and Senate race. It is, however, a pledge to pay attention to the internals of the polls to determine whether the public numbers they project are honestly derived from internal data that is available.

As America closes in on November and assorted primaries are completed, you will begin to see numbers on this page with the goal of providing honest insights into what the polls mean and what to expect this fall. Stay tuned.

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