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Welcome to Election 2026

Welcome to Election Insights here at constitutionmatters.net. Scrolling down this page will allow you to gain some insights into where certain political races currently stand and what you might expect to see in the coming election on November 3, 2026.

You will find that election information on this site differs from what you might find on other sites. Aggregation sites often bore readers with details about the models and weighting of assorted political polls that have been plugged into prefabricated algorithms. In truth, their weighting is often politically biased, which is why results often miss the mark dramatically. Here you will find what you are really seeking, which is plain talk about what to expect in the coming election. At constitutionmatters.net, the goal is to offer you, the reader, straightforward insights into political polls and their potential meaning.

There is no presidential race this year, which affects the character of the election, at least to a degree. In 2026, we find three components of the election that will impact the electorate on a national scale. These include races for state governorships, seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, and seats in the U.S. Senate. However, since governorships are less impactful on a national level, we will not spend much time following those races. While we may touch on interesting gubernatorial races as we close in on election day, the primary focus here will be on races in the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. This page will be updated weekly (each Monday) through November 2, 2026, but previous weeks' results will remain posted on this page so readers can track changes and trends.

Democrat

Peltola

Ossoff*

Turek

Jackson

El-Sayed

Flanagan

Pappas

Cooper

Brown

Talarico

Republican

Sullivan*

Collins

Hinson

Collins*

Rogers

Tafoya

Sununu

Whatley

Husted*

Paxton

Margin

R +1%

D +4%

R +5%

R +2%

R +3% (Flip)

D +2%

D +2%

D +4% (Flip)

R +2%

R +4%

State

Alaska (R)

Georgia (D)

Iowa (R)

Maine (R)

Michigan (D)

Minnesota (D)

New Hampshire (D)

North Carolina (R)

Ohio (R)

Texas (R)

The Alaska Senate Race - Peltola v. Sullivan v. Sullivan v. Heikes

The Alaska Senate race has taken some interesting turns. As mentioned early in September, the ballot includes three Republicans and one Democrat with two of the Republicans sharing the same name. This certainly gives the Democrat candidate an advantage, although here at Election Insights, Dan S. Sullivan, the incumbent, is expected to win.

What has made this race more interesting of late is that certain accusations have been raised against Mary Peltola, the Democrat candidate. She is facing allegations from ex-staffers of offensive behavior. This includes claims of Peltola physically pushing staff and spouting gay slurs. While the campaign downplayed the claims, the approach was not to absolutely deny the behavior, but to excuse it since she was experiencing trauma in her life at the time and insisting that the nature of the behavior was overstated.

It is difficult to say how these accusations will impact the election, or if they will effect it at all. Since Election Insights projects a Dan S. Sullivan win, this should not impact the ultimate outcome of the race - only the difference in the final numbers.

The Minnesota Senate Race - Tafoya v. Flanagan

The state of Minnesota last elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate in 2002. In fact, Minnesota is such a blue (Democrat) state that when Ronald Reagan won re-election in 1984 by winning 49 states, Minnesota was his only loss. Of course, that may have been partly due to the fact that his opponent, Walter Mondale, hailed from Minnesota. Still, the state has a track record as a Democrat stronghold.

Given the state's history, it is a bit surprising to see that current polls showing a Minnesota Senate race that appears to be neck-and-neck. The RCP average of likely voter polls from the last 30 days has Peggy Flanagan, the Democrat, leading Michele Tafoya, the Republican, by 1.4%. This does not mean that Tafoya has a strong chance of winning, and polls have been wrong before, but that error generally tilts in favor of the Democrat Party. These factors suggest that Minnesota is in play as a possible flip for Republicans. Still, Polymarket currently gives Flanagan an 87% chance of winning in November.

The Ohio Senate Race - Brown v. Husted

While the Ohio Senate race was covered here last week, it is being revisited this week, partly because it is a compelling race with the polls very tight. Also, the state of Ohio tends to be a bellwether for the whole of the electorate. In other words, what happens in Ohio as far as elections are concerned tends to foreshadow what happens around the nation.

According to the RCP average of likely voter polls, Sherrod Brown (Democrat) holds a 2.6-point lead over Jon Husted (Republican) in Ohio, which is comparable to last week's number. However, two things have changed over the last week. First, a new co/efficient poll has surfaced that shows Husted with a 1-point lead. This is the first poll in over three months that has reported a Republican lead in that race.

If you have been following this website, you likely understand that a poll favoring Husted was not unexpected. It has been the position here at Election Insights over the past 6 weeks that Husted would win. After all, Donald Trump won this state by double digits in 2024, and Ohio has been moving considerably to the Republican side of the aisle over the past few election cycles. The co/efficient poll is the first crack in Brown's purported stronghold in Ohio.

Second, it can be said that mail-in and early voting numbers in Ohio do not look particularly promising for the Democrats. The numbers are not nearly what Democrats expected. While numbers are always diminished in the mid-terms, the Democrat numbers are not what they had hoped for while Republican numbers are actually exceeding expectations. It is early in the process, but compared to the same time frame in previous elections, Democrat numbers are incredibly weak. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next three weeks.

Polymarket still gives Brown a 63% chance of winning this Senate seat in Ohio, but that number should begin to fall in short order. As we close in on November 3rd, it is likely that more polls will begin to reflect a Husted lead, or at least a tie. When that happens, you can expect the current projection here at Election Insights of a 2% win by Husted to increase to 3% or even 4%.

November Estimates

There is no change this week in the estimated number of Senate seats that each party is expected to win. Republicans should end up with a 53-47 Senate majority, which is the same majority held by Republicans in the current Senate. However, over the next couple of weeks as more meaningful polls appear and additional early voting numbers become available, there may be changes in the winning percentages.

In the following summary of close races, the asterisk next to an individual's name indicates the incumbent, but several races listed here have open seats (no incumbent) due to retirement, primary loss, death, etc. Also, the D or R next to the state name indicates which party currently holds that seat.

This should not be considered an attempt to predict the exact outcome of the November elections, but should be seen as a depiction of the political landscape as a whole. In that vein, at this point in time the chart should be read with +/-1 senatorial seat in view for each political party. Given the following numbers, this means it is currently likely that Republicans will end up with 52 - 54 seats in the Senate while Democrats can expect to realize 46 - 48 seats. Additionally, margins should be considered as mere estimates with +/-1 point in view. For instance, in Georgia's race, Ossoff's leads of 4% suggests that he should win by between 3% and 5%. 

Election 2026 Insights: October 12, 2026

The U.S. Senate

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

53

47

Change

Election 2026 Insights: October 12, 2026

The U.S. House of Representatives

The RCP average of likely voters for the Generic Congressional Ballot dropped from last week's 8.3-point lead for Democrats to this week's 7.5-point Democrat advantage. Considering the fact that polls in early October tend to overstate the Democrat position by between 4 and 5 points, it is reasonable to conclude that the race is much tighter than the polls suggest. 

Some like to disparage pollsters for being so inconsistent. After all, polls over the last month show Democrats with a lead raging from 2 points to 12 points. These numbers do not even fall within the margin of error the polls report. It is, of course, difficult to attain a truly accurate poll and it is impossible to know which polls are closest to reality until November 4th. That having been said, it is also fair to say that certain pollsters are consistently off by inexcusable amounts. It is not only probable, but highly likely that such polls are influenced by political bias.

How can a poll be politically manipulated? Quite often the manipulation comes into play by polling locations (municipality v. rural) where the populace is heavily weighted (left or right). Those numbers are then extrapolated to the general population even though they are not reflective of the general population. Measures such as this explain why the polls are so inconsistent.

Where does the race for the majority in the House of Representatives currently stand? Most pundits anticipate that Democrats will walk away with between 220 and 230 seats in the House of Representatives, meaning the Democrats would hold the majority in the House beginning in January. Additionally, Polymarket currently shows that Democrats have a 90% chance of taking the majority in the lower chamber.

In mid-term elections, the party out of the White House generally gains seats. This is especially true when the party in the White House also controls both chambers of Congress. When the minority party makes huge gains (perhaps 30-40 seats), it is considered a blue (Democrat) wave or a red (Republican) wave. While some are insisting that 2026 could result in a blue wave, the numbers don't seem to be cooperating. The Democrats could wind up with a majority in the House of Representatives, but here at Election Insights, the expectation is that it would be a slim majority.

While little occurred this week to impact the coming House elections, the early voting and mail-in numbers seem to be favoring Republicans ever-so-slightly. For that reason, at the present time Election Insights considers the race for the majority in the House of Representatives a virtual tie.

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

215-220

215-220

See Below for a Review of Previous Weeks

October 5, 2026

U.S. Senate Outlook

State

Alaska (R)

Georgia (D)

Iowa (R)

Maine (R)

Michigan (D)

New Hampshire (D)

North Carolina (R)

Ohio (R)

Texas (R)

Democrat

Peltola

Ossoff*

Turek

Jackson

El-Sayed

Pappas

Cooper

Brown

Talarico

Republican

Sullivan*

Collins

Hinson

Collins*

Rogers

Sununu

Whatley

Husted*

Paxton

Margin

R +1%

D +4%

R +5%

R +2%

R +3% (Flip)

D +2%

D +4% (Flip)

R +2%

R +4%

U.S. House of Representatives Outlook

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

214-218

217-221

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

47

53

Change

September 28, 2026

U.S. Senate Outlook

State

Alaska (R)

Georgia (D)

Iowa (R)

Maine (R)

Michigan (D)

New Hampshire (D)

North Carolina (R)

Ohio (R)

Texas (R)

Democrat

Peltola

Ossoff*

Turek

Jackson

El-Sayed

Pappas

Cooper

Brown

Talarico

Republican

Sullivan*

Collins

Hinson

Collins*

Rogers

Sununu

Whatley

Husted*

Paxton

Margin

R +1%

D +4%

R +4%

R +2%

R +3% (Flip)

D +2%

D +4% (Flip)

R +2%

R +4%

U.S. House of Representatives Outlook

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

215-219

216-220

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

47

53

September 21, 2026

U.S. Senate Outlook

State

Alaska (R)

Georgia (D)

Iowa (R)

Maine (R)

Michigan (D)

New Hampshire (D)

North Carolina (R)

Ohio (R)

Texas (R)

Democrat

Peltola

Ossoff*

Turek

Jackson

El-Sayed

Pappas

Cooper

Brown

Talarico

Republican

Sullivan*

Collins

Hinson

Collins*

Rogers

Sununu

Whatley

Husted*

Paxton

Margin

R +1%

D +4%

R +5%

R +2%

R +3% (Flip)

D +2%

D +4% (Flip)

R +2%

R +4%

U.S. House of Representatives Outlook

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

215-219

216-220

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

47

53

Change

R +1

September 14, 2026

U.S. Senate Outlook

State

Alaska (R)

Georgia (D)

Iowa (R)

Maine (R)

Michigan (D)

New Hampshire (D)

North Carolina (R)

Ohio (R)

Texas (R)

Democrat

Peltola

Ossoff*

Turek

Jackson

El-Sayed

Pappas

Cooper

Brown

Talarico

Republican

Sullivan*

Collins

Hinson

Collins*

Rogers

Sununu

Whatley

Husted*

Paxton

Margin

R +1%

D +4%

R +4%

R +2%

R +3% (Flip)

D +2%

D +4% (Flip)

R +2%

R +4%

U.S. House of Representatives Outlook

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

216-220

215-219

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

47

53

September 7, 2026

U.S. Senate Outlook

State

Alaska (R)

Georgia (D)

Iowa (R)

Maine (R)

Michigan (D)

New Hampshire (D)

North Carolina (R)

Ohio (R)

Texas (R)

Democrat

Peltola

Ossoff*

Turek

Jackson

El-Sayed

Pappas

Cooper

Brown

Talarico

Republican

Sullivan*

Collins

Hinson

Collins*

Rogers

Sununu

Whatley

Husted*

Paxton

Margin

R +1%

D +4%

R +4%

R +2%

R +3% (Flip)

D +2%

D +4% (Flip)

R +2%

R +4%

U.S. House of Representatives Outlook

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

216-220

215-219

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

47

53

September 1, 2026

U.S. Senate Outlook

State

Alaska (R)

Georgia (D)

Iowa (R)

Maine (R)

Michigan (D)

New Hampshire (D)

North Carolina (R)

Ohio (R)

Texas (R)

Democrat

Peltola

Ossoff*

Turek

Jackson

El-Sayed

Pappas

Cooper

Brown

Talarico

Republican

Sullivan*

Collins

Hinson

Collins*

Rogers

Sununu

Whatley

Husted*

Paxton

Margin

R +1%

D +4%

R +4%

R +2%

R +3% (Flip)

D +2%

D +4% (Flip)

R +2%

R +4%

U.S. House of Representatives Outlook

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

216-220

215-219

Party No. of Seats

Republicans

Democrats

47

53

Here's the Plan for 2026!

Over the past several years, there has been a clear and obvious bias in political polls leaving the public with a distorted view of public sentiment. That political bias has become even more pronounced in recent elections. Specifically, 2016 was the year that bias began to scream out from the pages of all but a few political polls. It was then exacerbated by polling aggregates like five-thirty-eight who seemed to reward the obvious bias of pollsters whose numbers ended up in the dumpster of election history while penalizing those whose polls more accurately reflected the mood of the electorate. For additional information on polls, read this website's 3-part series, Political Polls: Manufactured News - Parts 1, 2, and 3 under Constitution Commentaries in the menu at the top of the page. These articles may also be found under the Commentaries Alphabetical Listing in the menu.

The goal here at Constitution Matters, at least for the year 2026, is to provide visitors with an honest analysis of political polls leading into the November mid-terms. The focus will be primarily on the U.S. House of Representatives, and the U.S. Senate seats where the outcomes may be in question. This is not a promise to accurately forecast the winner of every House and Senate race. It is, however, a pledge to pay attention to the internals of the polls to determine whether the public numbers they project are honestly derived from internal data that is available.

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