Not Your Father's Mid-Term Election

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1. According to polls, Donald Trump is quite unpopular (roughly 40% approval), and it is said that a mid-term serves as a referendum on the current president. This is generally true, but what is being overlooked is that the Democrat Party is far less popular than either Donald Trump or the Republican Party. It will be interesting to see how that factor impacts the vote.

2.  Roughly one-third or more of the Democrat Party has begun to embrace socialism. Indeed, a hefty number of Democrat candidates for the House and the Senate are either members of the Democrat Socialists of America (DSA) or have aligned themselves with socialist principles. This has caused a major split in the party. Many semi-conservative Democrats would never vote for such a candidate. While a few DSA members may squeak by in certain very liberal districts, it seems unlikely that such candidates will win in middle American.

3.  Since the year 2020, Republican registrations across the country have risen dramatically (by roughly 3 million) while Democrat registrations have fallen at almost that same pace. This is likely due in part to the fact that the Democrat Party has been distancing itself from main-stream America by embracing socialist views.

4.  In addition to the shift in voter registration, there has been a semi-successful effort to clean up voter rolls and minimize fraudulent voting procedures across the nation. This, combined with the fact that millions of illegal aliens have been deported over the last two years will undoubtedly benefit the Republican Party where voting numbers are concerned.

5.  In the past two weeks people have been voting either via mail or by early in-person voting. At this point in time, the numbers do not indicate the massive blue wave some have been predicting. The number of voters aged 18-29 have been miniscule across the nation (around 5% of the vote) while the number of voters over 65 years of age has been impressive (about 45%-50% of the vote). This does not bode well for the Democrat Party as the youth vote is a huge constituency for Democrats and older voters tend to be more aligned with Republicans. Additionally, states that report voting by party registration indicate that mail-in and early voting by Democrats is down from other years while Republican voting has been pretty much in line with previous mid-terms.

6. While not much has been said on the topic of late, the truth is that the Republican Party saw major victories in the bitter redistricting war that has taken place over the past several months. That battle will probably net the party ten or twelve seats in November's election that would otherwise have gone to Democrats.

7. The final factor to consider in the 2026 mid-term is arguably the biggest factor. It is the big tell, providing evidence that Democrats are aware that they are no longer looking at a blue wave. It is the age-old saying...follow the money. First, it is historical fact that money matters particularly in congressional elections. Generally speaking, the candidate that spends the most money in a congressional race wins 94% of the time, and currently, Republicans are flush with money.

8. An even bigger factor where money is concerned is the fact that Democrats have begun pulling money from races where they believe spending additional dollars will not be helpful. This includes races like the Texas Senate race and the House race in Arizona's 2nd district, both of which looked promising early on. Over the next week you can expect to see that pattern expand...likely in places like Ohio, Iowa, and Michigan. Generally, when a party begins moving money in this fashion, it is a sign of weakness and even surrender.

The Historical Narrative

It is a narrative that is repeated every four years during the mid-term election. The party out of power - that is to say, the party that does not occupy the White House - tends to make significant gains in the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. The truth is, it is not that unusual for the out-of-power party to gain twenty, or thirty seats in the House of Representatives and perhaps a half dozen Senate seats. It is not unheard of for that party to gain even forty seats. In fact, the president's party has gained congressional seats in the mid-terms only three times in the last century (1934, 1998, and 2002).

Pretty much everyone has heard this narrative repeated daily over the past months with forecasters predicting a coming blue (Democrat) wave in 2026. The storyline is that Trump is unpopular and, as a result, the Democrats will surely control the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate in 2027.

Even political polls have been cooperating. Most polls show Democrats leading across the nation. For instance, they are up by roughly 8% in the Congressional Generic Ballot in the Real Clear Politics average. Additionally, Democrats seem to be leading in Senate races in places like Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and other Republican-leaning states.

Favoring Democrats

Certain issues, it may be argued, favor Democrats in 2026.

Conclusion

It is impossible to say which party will control the House of Representative in 2027. With 435 seats in the House, very few are considered toss-ups, so no matter who wins the majority, it is likely that it will be by a negligible margin, making it hard to accomplish much. At this point it is difficult to see either party winning more than 221 or 222 seats.

The Senate, on the other hand, will likely see a Republican majority of between four and six seats. The polls may currently be saying something different, but the polls are undoubtedly overstating the Democrat position in many senatorial races. For instance, Susan Collins is likely to win in Maine even though the polls show her opponent leading. Similarly, James Talarico, an extremely liberal Democrat, is not likely to win in a conservative state like Texas. Also, Republicans are likely to take Senate seats in Ohio and Iowa despite contrary polling.

Currently there are more factors favoring Republicans than Democrats. Consequently, despite the polls and predictions, it is a safe bet that 2026 will not see a dramatic blue wave. Still, Democrats may take the majority in the House. Right now, who will win the majority in the House is roughly a 50/50 proposition, though perhaps Republicans have begun to build a slight advantage. That is not, however, the case in the Senate. It does not appear that the Democrats have any clear path to gaining the four seats needed to win the majority in the upper chamber.

All these factors suggest that 2026 may not see the typical takeover of Congress by the out-of-power party that occurs in most mid-terms. If Democrats do, indeed, win the majority in the House, it may be seen as a hollow win. Nothing will be accomplished over the next two years and no matter how many times they seek to impeach Trump (which would likely hurt the party's chances in 2028), he will continue as president through the end of his term in 2029.

Most political forecasters believe the Democrats will end up holding a majority in the House of Representatives after the election. In order to take the majority, a party must have at least 218 congressional seats. Generally, the expectation is that when the votes are counted, Democrats will hold between 225 and 230 seats, giving them the majority and control over much of the political agenda for the next two years. Primarily, that agenda would involve impeaching Donald Trump repeatedly.

Favoring Republicans

Will 2026 simply repeat history or is there something different about 2026 that could end up turning the tables? Actually, there is reason to believe that this election may look more like those years when America witnessed exceptions to the age-old mid-term rule. Consider what might make this mid-term different.

1. The war with Iran could be a problem for Republicans. After all, the war has continued long past what the public was led to expect. Accompanying the war is the rise in fuel prices. Voters are reminded of the war every time they fill up their cars, and it takes considerably more money to fill up one's car than it might have otherwise cost.

2. Inflation is still running high (around 3.7%). Of course this is partly due to the cost of fuel, and particularly due to the increased cost of diesel fuel as truckers spend more to deliver products and those costs are passed on to the public.

3. Some would argue that the current Congress (particularly the Senate) has failed to accomplish what the public expected. For instance, the Senate failed to pass the SAVE Act, which was something that disappointed many Republicans. Such failure could impact Republican turnout and leave the Republican Party wanting in November.

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